Stock Market News Moving Stocks Today

Jul. 07, 2017 7:42 AM ETBOND, DIA, GLD, IWM, QQQ, SPY, USO, UUP, VTI, VXX

13.11K Followers

Summary

The Employment Situation Report will guide investors on the state of labor and the economy.
The jobs data carries with it implications for Fed monetary trajectory and pace.
President Trump is at the G20 in Germany, with international trade, North Korean aggression, China relations, the Qatar crisis, climate change and Russia relations on the table.
The latest rig count data from Baker Hughes meets an especially volatile and sensitive energy trading pit.
Despite the busy day ahead, I expect relief after it all passes to leave the market meandering its way out on light summer volume.

Here's one holiday shortened week that will not see responsible money managers taking Friday off. This is one Friday that will require your full attention. The Employment Situation Report for June will guide on the state of labor and the economy, and thus Fed policy. Plus, President Trump is at the G20 in Germany, with international trade, climate change, Russia relations, North Korean aggression, China relations and the Qatar crisis all on the table. Finally, a volatile energy market eagerly awaits the latest rig count data from Baker Hughes. Yeah, so save my place on the beach, because I'll be a little late today.

The so-called granddaddy of all economic reports is due this morning, the Employment Situation Report. Economists are looking for unemployment to hold at a 4.3% rate in June, still indicative of full employment. Any slight increase in the unemployment rate is unlikely to have much of an impact on the market today. However, a further decrease in the rate to 4.2% should be viewed positively given recently strong economic indications from ISM's manufacturing and nonmanufacturing indices.

Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have increased by 170K, versus the 138K increase in May. Private nonfarm payrolls are expected to have increased by 164K, a bit less than ADP's estimate for 158K. A lower rate of job creation is to be expected at full employment. Thus, the market should not read negatively into a lower level here; economist's expectations should be lower in my view.

Perhaps the most important tidbit in this month's data will be the change in average hourly earnings and also the average workweek. Economists expect earnings rose 0.3%, versus the 0.2% increase last month. That would mark a 2.6% year-to-year increase in wages, and fire up inflation speak... The workweek is expected to hold at 34.4 hours. Any increase in the workweek also reflects well on the economy and has healthy inflation implications.

These days, every Friday is exciting, with the weekly Baker-Hughes Rig Count data reported at 1:00 PM. Last week's data was bullish, as U.S. rig count activity, especially for oil, stalled. Analysts have been lowering their forecasts for oil prices this year, but I believe they are mistaken. Improving economic data should lead to revisions to demand forecasts, and the Qatar crisis adds a factor possibility for an oil supply shock.

I will not attempt to foresee what may come of the G20 meetings. We know much could come of it, given all the hot topics on the table. Investors will welcome a quiet, controversy free gathering.

At roughly 5:00 AM EDT, asset securities were indicating as follows:

Security	07-06-17	Premarket Indication
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-0.9%	+0.1%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	-0.7%	NA
PowerShares QQQ (NASDAQ: QQQ)	-0.9%	+0.04%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	-0.9%	NA
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	-1.0%	NA
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures (NYSE: VXX)	+5.0%	NA
PowerShares DB US Dollar Bull (NYSE: UUP)	-0.4%	NA
PIMCO Active Bond ETF (NYSE: BOND)	+0.1%	NA
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)	+0.7%	-2.2%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	-0.04%	NA

In conclusion, look to three key data points for direction today, the monthly jobs data, with its implications for the economy and the Fed; the G20 and all the hot topics on the table; and finally the Baker Hughes rig count data. If the data is not too disruptive, relief may have stocks meandering their way out of the week on light volume.

For my regular work on markets, readers are welcome to follow the column here at Seeking Alpha.

This article was written by

Markos Kaminis

13.11K Followers

Markos N. Kaminis generated a 23% average annual return on "Strong Buy" stock selections over 5 years while working as a Senior Equity Analyst on Wall Street. As an internal whistle-blower, I sacrificed absolutely everything to do the right thing. And despite being an eyewitness and victim of terrorism on 9-11, I am currently volunteering at a busy border crossing helping Middle Eastern & North African refugees, most displaced by war or other horrors, to land safely in Europe. Despite my life experiences, I still have hope, and believe that we must persevere with patience (forgiveness), tolerance and love. I have determined to struggle for the better good of my brethren rather than for myself, and you'll see that play out over the course of the rest of my life. But I worked far too long and hard to become an excellent stock-picker to not incorporate this work into the fold. Markos N. Kaminis generated a 23% average annual return on "Strong Buy" stock selections over 5 years and ranked 2nd among a group of 60 analysts in-house as a Senior Equity Analyst over a seven-year period at Standard & Poor's. After proving his value in-house, he was promoted into a special role as an idea generator, supporting the portfolios of institutional clients as well as driving performance within S&P's recommended lists and portfolios. At times, Markos was responsible for up to 10% of the firm's entire "Strong Buy" list and is due a great deal of credit for the group's outstanding performance during his tenure. Markos followed a group of 30-40 Small and Mid-Cap firms, and was charged with finding new buy and sell candidates across industry sectors. He generated a 23% average annual return over five years on his "Strong Buy" recommendations, and 26% over three years ended 2004. He was ranked 1st of 60 analysts in-house for his "Strong Buy" performance over 4 years (2nd over 5). Markos also authored IPO research and wrote for high-level newsletters, The Outlook, Equity Insights and Emerging Opportunities, as well as for BusinessWeek Online. He represented his firm as an analytical expert commentator for major media, including television, Internet and through quotes and interviews in reputable publications. Besides predicting the stock market correction of 2015 through a series of prescient reports here in August. (see proof here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3482226-investor-who-predicted-the-stock-market-correction-offers-an-update ), Markos also advised investors to buy stocks at the bottom of the market in mid-February 2016 and again post-Brexit at the trough, and to buy gold in January 2016 before the commodity started its move higher. More recently, he called the pickup in the economy for 2018, the upward move for stocks in 2018, and the breakout in oil, starting in June of 2017. See: June 15, 2017 – Buy Oil Back Now; August 1, 2017 – Why Oil Prices Will Break Out – The Demand Driver; September 30, 2017 – Why Oil Prices Can Break Out Part II: Vulnerable Supply; and January 26, 2018 – Up 44% Since Our June Bullish Turn – Oil Still Supported Here. While not perfect, over the years, Markos has made countless correct market and security calls for his followers, including forecasting the demise of J.C. Penney on the heralded CEO hire's disruptive plans, the bankruptcies of Washington Mutual and Pilgrim's Pride in the $30 and $20s, respectively, as well as the purchase of Facebook in the mid-$20s when it was considered a pariah post its IPO (today it is a market darling). Markos also warned of the real estate market collapse and the financial crisis in the early days of his blogging. What I personally want you to know about my plans: After witnessing the worst of Wall Street firsthand and having the ideal vision of my childhood career choice corrupted by reality, I almost switched to full-time charity work at age 40 and still have plans for several non-profit endeavors. The future is somewhat unknown, and I am open to employment offers for portfolio management or other ideas. While continuing to publish regularly, I expect to begin work on several book ideas that I believe are important for business, for our nation and for society. I may put my stock selection skills, earned through blood, sweat and tears, to better use, and to make my own way. I would like to give investors something rare, a dignified partner who can manage money with integrity and a clear conscience about the degree of due diligence behind investment decisions... someone who cares more about your money than your wife. I hope readers will become followers of my column here & at my blog, so that when our numbers are substantial, we might start an investment fund or two. Prior to his Wall Street career, Mr. Kaminis spent time in the back-office, as a mutual fund accountant, where he managed for a time the work of two men. Before this, from age 11 to age 25, he worked as a carpenter's apprentice and carpenter with his father, in both commercial and residential projects. Mr. Kaminis has an intimate knowledge of the real estate (undergraduate degree in Real Estate and Finance) and construction market, as well as the restaurant industry. However, as a generalist stock analyst, he showed the ability to learn any and the most complicated of industries in short time - and he gamed every challenge presented to him. Mr. Kaminis earned his MBA at the Katz Graduate School of Business at the University of Pittsburgh, and his BA at Temple University in Philadelphia. However, Markos has been studying the stock market since age 13, when he determined his career path. He made his first investment at age 16, and funded much of his undergraduate education with the proceeds of his investing success. Mr. Kaminis continues to keep busy forecasting the economic path and securities market activity. Markos is considering the eventual start-up a long/short capital appreciation hedge fund. Such a fund would limit risk through beta reduction, using a diversification strategy targeting sector & industry and long & short position inclusion. At the same time, Markos' theoretical fund would seek maximum capital appreciation through the exploitation of Mr. Kaminis' inherent economic & market discernment gift and proven stock selection skills. Mr. Kaminis also has a team of a select few analysts, technicians, strategists and economists that he has been impressed by over the years, which he expects to tap for the project when the time is right. Mr. Kaminis welcomes your interest in such a potential forward effort, and looks forward to discussing his plans with those appropriate and within legal constraints. Markos toys with very early stage entrepreneurial efforts in the testing of certain business models, all of which he intends to tie to a planned non-profit project serving the most helpless among us. The tie will be that the businesses will give employment opportunity to individuals who would otherwise have difficulty finding gainful employment. It will house and heal the homeless, ex-convicts, those completing rehabilitation efforts for drug and other addictions, and others in need of help. Markos is currently Directing the widely syndicated blog he founded, "Wall Street Greek," and is writing for other well-known publications besides advancing several big ideas. Markos' column is syndicated across sites like the Boston Globe, Kiplinger Magazine, UPI and other reputable newspaper and TV websites, as well as private networks, Amazon Kindle, iPhone and more. In the past, he has written for RealMoney.com, Motley Fool and others. Requests to research specific companies are welcome, as we serve our readers. You may contact us via this blog's contact info. Mr. Kaminis welcomes you to follow him here at Seeking Alpha, where he is proud to be a long-time contributor to this strong team of writers. He considers the Seeking Alpha team and management close friends, and for you, people worth knowing and following. Visit his site: Wall Street Greek (http://www.wallstreetgreek.blogspot.com/)

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