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Apple: Is $140 The Bottom To Buy?

Jul. 07, 2017 3:04 PM ETApple Inc. (AAPL)61 Comments


  • Apple has our overall buy signal with a passing grade of 59 out of 100.
  • It has our implied return buy signal of 22.5%.
  • Supply has triggered our buy on weakness signal.
  • But our supply signal has yet to reverse direction.

Because of our buy signals, we have Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in our paper model portfolio and it continues to have our buy on weakness signal. The only questions we have are how long will these signals last and how low will price go? Let's examine the fundamental and technical data to find the answers.


The analysts remain positive and continue raising targets. Nasdaq.com shows 21 of 30 analysts have buys while 2 have sells. The consensus target is $163 and AAPL is trading at $142.73.

The high analyst target is $202. Flashratings shows recent analysts at $160, $165 and$170.

Finviz.com shows a few analysts going to $180. The consensus target is usually conservative when targets are moving up, and this data seems to confirm this for AAPL. Our proprietary implied return calculation is 22.5% and that includes the dividend.

All of this would seem to confirm that the current pullback in AAPL price is a technical anomaly and an opportunity to buy on weakness. The lower price goes and the higher targets move, the more our implied return increases.

Maybe the value players have a full boat of AAPL and have to sell some, but what about the growth players looking for a minimum of a 20% return. When do they jump back in on the AAPL bandwagon even though it is not a 20% long term growth stock?

The answer is when they are convinced that price is low enough to give them better than 20%. Obviously if they believe the target is $160, they want to buy at $135. The truth is that support is probably somewhere between $135 and $145. I think we are approaching the optimal, low, buy price. Our implied return of 22.5% indicates it is time to buy. Our buy on weakness signal says the same. The only thing to wait for is the lowest price when our

This article was written by

Tom Lloyd profile picture
Every day we look for index beaters for investing and trading.

Tom’s book "Successful Stock Signals for Traders and Portfolio Managers" is available on StockCharts.com and Amazon. The StocksInDemand.com system is designed to make money using a combined fundamental and technical grade for each stock. Tom received his MBA in Accounting from St. John's University, where he taught courses on the stock market. He marketed fundamental research, technical research and quantitative research to professional portfolio managers during his Wall St. career. 

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

This article was previously published to our SA Marketplace subscribers.

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