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Hiding In Plain Sight: Micron's Q4 Beat

William Tidwell profile picture
William Tidwell


  • The Q3 earnings call was great news for Micron longs.
  • Sanjay Mehrotra makes his first appearance leading the call and emphasizes his strategy.
  • Some things left unsaid are important to consider.
  • Ernie reminds us to take a hard look at bit output in Q4, and we like what we see.

Micron’s (NASDAQ:MU) recently concluded Q3 concall was a good one, packed with mostly promising news for investors. The fact that the market reacted the way it did is disappointing, but I’ll leave the reading of those particular tea leaves to other commentators. Let’s instead spend some time unpacking the news that is pertinent to the fundamentals of the long position.

Call me weird, but I personally find the analysis of these concall transcripts endlessly fascinating. My academic background, (eons ago) was in the arcane area of what used to be called “Sovietology.” There was so little information coming out of the evil empire that anyone seeking to understand what was going on needed to look for subtle clues in the information flow that we did get. These corporate concalls are very similar. Time is limited, and there is so much that Micron wants to keep hidden and so little that it really wants us to know. This leaves us in a position of reading between the lines, looking for clues that might come from patterns, phraseology, and intonation – looking for the tells that come from what was said and what was not said.

The headlines of the call were excellent. A beat on revenues – a quarterly record at $5.57B - and best-ever non-GAAP earnings of $1.62/share to go along with that, both numbers above Q2 guidance. So, that was good but the guidance was even better, with Q4 revenues projected to climb 6% to a range centering on $5.9B and operating income to jump 11% to a range that finds $2.3B as its center – all of this resulting in an EPS number of $1.73 to $1.87. Who could complain about that? Laissez les bon temps rouler.

And, there is every indication that the good times will continue. Bit growth

This article was written by

William Tidwell profile picture
An entrepreneurial generalist who has served principally as a business leader and consultant in the information technology, communications, and business services arenas. Now retired, a stock picker and writer who enjoys writing about the semiconductor memory industry, among other things. When I'm not doing that I'm backpacking, cycling, and playing with my grandchildren.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long MU, WDC. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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