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Tesla: My Early Q2 Earnings Estimate

Jul. 10, 2017 1:56 PM ETTesla, Inc. (TSLA)67 Comments
Brad Kenagy profile picture
Brad Kenagy


  • I estimate GAAP, Non-GAAP and cash position for Tesla.
  • I predict Tesla will report GAAP earnings of $-2.70 and Non-GAAP earnings of $-1.95.
  • I predict Tesla will burn through over $900 million in cash during the quarter.

In this article, I will provide my detailed estimate for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) earnings, which will be reported on August 2nd. I will detail the entire process I used to arrive at my estimate of GAAP EPS of $-2.70 and Non-GAAP EPS of $-1.95. My Non-GAAP estimate is lower than the current Wall Street estimate of $-1.72, and the Estimize consensus of $-1.58.


The second item I will be estimating is the cash position of Tesla, since it is one of their prominent bullet points in their quarterly earnings reports. If Tesla does meet its stated target of $2 billion of CAPEX in the first half of 2017, along with covering operating losses for the quarter, I predict that Tesla’s cash balance will drop to just under $3.1 billion, which means a burn rate of over $900 million in the second quarter.

Tesla Earnings Estimate

Following my bullet points below, I provide an income statement with all the following data compiled for my estimate for Q2 earnings. I go line by line to detail how I arrived at my estimate.


  • Automotive Revenue: During Q1 Tesla posted automotive revenue of $2.035 billion on 25,051 deliveries, which comes out to just over $81,240 per delivered car. With Tesla recently announcing just over 22,000 deliveries for Q2, I used 22,100 deliveries in my estimate and applied the $81,240 per delivery rate I calculated above and arrived at $1.795 billion in automotive revenue for the quarter.
  • Automotive Leasing Revenue: Automotive leasing between Q1 2017 and Q4 2016 was virtually unchanged, so I left the same value as in Q1 2017.
  • Energy Generation & Storage Revenue: Tesla grew its energy generation and storage revenues at 62.84% Q/Q, so I applied that rate to the revenues from last quarter and arrived at $348.38 million in energy generation & storage revenues.

This article was written by

Brad Kenagy profile picture
-I have been investing since the fall of 2008 and invested through one of the most difficult investing periods in history and know the importance of dividend growth and stability during those times as well as during the good times. I started writing for Seeking Alpha at the end of 2011 and I have been successful with the companies I write about, which is shown by my high TipRanks success rate (Link Below). https://www.tipranks.com/bloggers/brad-kenagy

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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