S&P500 Dividend Aristocrats Net Gain Leaders Are Target, Nucor And AT&T By July Broker Estimates

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Includes: ABBV, ADP, CVX, ED, EMR, FRT, GPC, KO, NUE, PEP, PG, SYY, T, TGT, TROW, WMT, XOM
by: Fredrik Arnold

Summary

"S&P 500® Dividend Aristocrats measure the performance S&P 500 companies that have increased dividends every year for the last 25 consecutive years."

51 Aristocrats stocks represent ten of eleven Morningstar Sectors. Broker target-estimated July top ten gains ranged 6.3%-19.7% topped by TGT 7/10/17.

AT&T was top Aristocrats dog by yield as top ten, WMT, PEP, GWW, ADM, PG, GPC, EMR, ABBV, TGT, & T averaged 3.5% yield.

Aristocrats top ten firms by broker target price upsides, XOM, PEP, GPC, WMT, SYY, T, CVX, FRT, TGT, NUE averaged 12.51% estimated 1 yr. price gains.

$5k invested in the lowest-priced five July top-yield Aristocrats stocks showed 13.95% more net-gain than from $5k invested in all ten. Little price Dogs ruled July SP 500® Dividend Aristocrats®.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Broker Analysts Predicted 9.2% To 19.7% Net Gains For Ten Aristocrats Dividend Dogs By July 2018

Five of ten top Aristocrats by yield were verified as being among the top ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They areinted gray in the chart above). Thus, this yield-based forecast for Aristocrats dogs was graded by Wall St. wizards as 50% accurate.

Ten probable profit-generating trades were revealed in YCharts for July 2018:

Target (TGT) was projected to net $197.22, based on target price estimates from twenty-six analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 40% less than the market as a whole.

Nucor (NUE) was projected to net $179.28, based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from sixteen analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 49% less than the market as a whole.

AT&T Inc. (T) was projected to net $165.45, based on a median target estimates from twenty-eight analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 53% less than the market as a whole.

Chevron (CVX) was projected to net $164.20, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from twenty-five analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 23% more than the market as a whole.

Federal Realty Investment (FRT) was projected to net $161.63, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from twenty-two analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 72% less than the market as a whole.

Sysco (SYY) was projected to net $128.88, based on a median target price estimate from eighteen analysts, plus the estimated annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 48% less than the market as a whole.

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) was projected to net $111.23 based on dividends, plus a median target estimate from thirty-three brokers, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 72% less than the market as a whole.

Genuine Parts (GPC) was projected to net $110.43, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from fourteen analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 7% more than the market as a whole.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) was projected to net $95.02, based on a median target price estimate from twenty-six analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 19% less than the market as a whole.

PepsiCo (PEP) netted $92.45 based on a median target price estimate from twenty-two analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 33% less than the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 14.06% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 36% under the market as a whole.

Actionable Conclusion (11-13): (Bear Alert) Analysts Expected Three Aristocrats Dog To Make 3.4%-4.97% Losses By July, 2018

The probable losing trades revealed by Y-Charts by 2018 were:

T. Rowe Price Group (TROW) projected a loss of $33.89 based on dividend and a median target price estimate from sixteen analysts including $20 of broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 22% more than the market as a whole.

Consolidated Edison (ED) projected a loss of $42.52 based on dividend and a median target price estimate from sixteen analysts including $20 of broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 92% less than the market as a whole.

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) projected a loss of $49.71 based on dividend and a median target price estimate from twenty analysts including $20 of broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 22% less than the market as a whole.

The average net loss (dividend and price) was estimated at 4.2% on $3k invested as $1k in each of these three dogs. This loss estimate was subject to average volatility 31% under the market as a whole.

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs", even if they are "Aristocrats."

50 Dividend Aristocrats By Yield

Ten Top Dividend Aristocrats Stocks By Yield

Top ten Aristocrats selected 7/10/17 by yield represented seven of eleven Morningstar sectors. Top yielding stock, AT&T, Inc. (T) [1] was the lone communication services representative in the top ten.

Three consumer defensive sector firms placed second, seventh, and tenth, Target (TGT) [2], Coca-Cola Co. (KO) [7], and Procter & Gamble (PG) [10].

Two energy representatives placed third, and fourth, Chevron (CVX) [3], and Exxon Mobil (XOM) [4].

A lone healthcare sector representative placed fifth, AbbVie (ABBV) [5]. This was followed by one utilities sector firm placing sixth, Consolidated Edison (ED) [6], and an industrials representative, in eighth place, Emerson Electric (EMR) [8].

Finally, the last of the top ten Aristocrats by yield, in ninth place, was the consumer cyclical representative, Genuine Parts (GPC) [9], to complete these for July.

Actionable Conclusions: (14-23) Top Ten Aristocrats Showed 7.68% To 17.36% Upsides To July, 2018; (24) Downside From The Biggest of Four Losers Was -5.69%.

To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provide a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield "dog" metrics, analyst mean price target estimates provided another tool to dig out bargains.

Actionable Conclusions: Wall St. Brokers Calculated (25) A 4.96% Median Target Price Upside and (26) A 6.14% Net Gain From 30 Aristocrats Upside Dogs Come July 2018

Aristocrats top thirty stocks were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of July 10, 2017, and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2018.

A hypothetical $1,000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter, the analyst mean target price gauged the stock price upsides and net gains including dividends, less broker fees, as of 2018.

Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $10,000 invested as $1k in each of the stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those ten stocks created data points for 2017. Projections based on estimated dividend amounts from $1,000 invested in the ten stocks and aggregate 1-year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance created the 2018 data points green for price and blue for dividend.

YChart analysts' median 1-year targets projected a 4.% lower dividend from $10k invested as $1k in ten dogs in this group while aggregate single share price for those ten was projected to increase by 4% in the coming year. Notice, price higher than dividend in the coming year forecasts a continuing Dow-like overbought condition for the Aristocrats top yield equities in 2018.

The number of analysts contributing to the target price estimate for each stock was noted in the next to the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was optimal for a valid projection estimate. Estimates provided by one analyst were generally not applied (n/a).

A beta (risk) ranking for each stock was provided in the far right column of the above chart. A beta of 1 meant the stock's price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta number indicated the degree of a stock's movement opposite of market direction.

Analysts Forecast A 13.95% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index Stocks To July 2018

Ten top Aristocrats dogs were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend / price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.

As noted above, top ten Aristocrats selected 7/10/17 showing the highest dividend yields represented seven of eleven in the Morningstar sector scheme.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Projected (27) The 5 Lowest-Priced of the Top Ten Highest-Yield Aristocrats Dogs Delivering 6.65% Vs. (28) 7.17% Net Gains by All Ten by July, 2018

$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten Dividend Utilities kennel by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 13.95% more gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all of those ten. The third lowest priced Aristocrats top yield dog, Target (TGT), was projected to deliver the best net gain of 19.72%.

The five lowest-priced top yield Aristocrats for July 10 were: AT&T, Inc. (T); Coca-Cola Co. (KO); Target (TGT); Emerson Electric (EMR); AbbVie (ABBV), with prices ranging from $36.83 to $71.83.

Five higher-priced Aristocrats for May 30 were: Exxon Mobil (XOM); Consolidated Edison (ED); Genuine Parts (GPC); Procter & Gamble (PG); Chevron, whose prices ranged from $80.16 to $103.04.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

See my instablog for specific instructions about how to best apply the dividend dog data featured in this article and this instablog to aid your safe investing. --Fredrik Arnold

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Two of these top Arisocrats pups by yield qualify as valuable catches! Find them among the now 52 Dogs of the Week I found on The Dividend Dog Catcher premium site, or the forty-one Dogs of the Week II now available. Click here to subscribe or get more information.

Make investing fun

To suggest a favorite stock for my next crowd-sourced follower favorite article in June, message me with your favorite stock ticker. I will include it in that article. Just send the ticker symbol for your favorite dividend stock (or two) by clicking on the envelope icon next to my name below the headline of this article or comment in the comments sector below. Leave your top ticker, and remember: Root for the Underdog.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your Aristocrats dog stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in YahooFinance. Dog photo: fr.pinterest.com

Disclosure: I am/we are long T.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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