Entering text into the input field will update the search result below

OPEC Compliance Falls In June But IEA Revises Global Oil Demand Higher


  • IEA revised global oil demand growth higher to 1.41 million b/d.
  • OPEC compliance ratio fell month over month.
  • OECD inventories continue to decline as expected.

Welcome to the IEA edition of Oil Markets Daily!

The closely watched IEA oil market report for July is out today with some notable things to cover.

Demand Moves Higher

IEA revised 2017 global oil demand growth higher to 97.96 million b/d with year-over-year growth of 1.41 million b/d. This is a sizable increase from last month's data of 1.28 million b/d.

In Seeking Alpha's Energy Week interview, we said:

For oil, we follow “the other guys” that make up almost half the world’s global oil supply. This is the area everyone is neglecting, but it could be the reason why oil prices boom in the next cycle. In addition, we follow emerging market trade flows, because it has a high correlation to predicting global oil demand growth.

In our premium reports published to HFI Research subscribers, we said that emerging market flows are on track to show oil demand growth of 1.5 million b/d this year with the bulk of the increase coming in the second half of 2017.

Although IEA has noticed the uptick in demand, we think its growth forecast of 1.41 million b/d remains too low and will likely see another upward revision over the summer.

OPEC Production Rose Month Over Month

In IEA's report, OPEC production rose 340k b/d month over month. The increase includes Equatorial Guinea, which is around 200k b/d.

For the 12 countries covered under the OPEC production cut agreement, compliance rate fell from 95% to 78%. The increase came from Saudi, which saw its oil production rise 130k b/d month over month as its own domestic demand starts to pick up.

Angolan output also recovered by about 60k b/d, and Iraq increased production by 20k b/d and is currently the worst offender under the OPEC agreement with a compliance ratio of 29%.

This article was written by

HFIR profile picture
Leader of HFI Research
The largest oil and natural gas research service on Seeking Alpha.

#1 Energy Research Service on Seeking Alpha


HFI Research specializes in contrarian investment analysis. We help you to find clarity in a world of uncertainty. We take contrarian thinking very seriously and believe that the only way to obtain a real edge in the market is to possess a contrarian investment thesis. We share our investment analysis with premium subscribers through daily and weekly reports.


HFI Research Premium currently includes:

Oil Market Fundamentals - Our daily oil market report that discusses the current oil market fundamentals and the incoming price trend.

Natural Gas Fundamentals - Our daily natural gas market report that details current trader positioning, fundamentals, weather, and the incoming trade set-up.

Real-Time Trade Notifications - We actively trade oil and natural gas ETNs. In addition, we also issue real-time trade notifications on individual stocks.

Weekly EIA Crude Storage Forecasts - Every Saturday, we give the EIA crude storage estimate for the incoming week's report.

Weekly US Oil Production Forecasts - A weekly tracker for real-time US oil production so subscribers can understand what's happening to US shale growth.

What Research Reports We Read - A weekly report that covers all the research reports we read for the week, so subscribers can understand the market consensus and contrarian viewpoints better.

What Changed This Week - Our flagship weekly report.

For more info, please message us.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.