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Apple: Is It Now Or Never?

Jul. 17, 2017 10:15 AM ETApple Inc. (AAPL)GOOG, GOOGL, SSNLF62 Comments
Bill Maurer profile picture
Bill Maurer


  • Estimates falling for the September quarter.
  • Samsung and Google are not giving up.
  • Are we reaching a pivotal moment?

Last week, I discussed the possibility of Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) next high-end phone going for more than $1,200, a rumor that's been circling due to certain components being in limited supply. We've been hearing a lot of analysts recently talking about a potential delay, and more and more on the Street are starting to discount the notion of a supercycle. With everyone waiting for Apple to finally deliver on a major smartphone upgrade, it may be fair to wonder if this year could mark a turning point.

We're still a couple of weeks away from Apple's earnings report, but the Street is becoming more and more negative about the September quarter. It's still unclear when the next set of iPhones will launch, and if only two of the three rumored devices come in September, it will push forward significant revenues to the December period. Just look at how the revenue growth estimate has dropped in the last few months for the September ending fiscal Q4 period:

  • May 4th: $50.87 billion, 8.6% increase
  • June 5th: $50.64 billion, 8.1% increase
  • June 8th: $50.57 billion, 7.9% increase
  • June 11th: $50.52 billion, 7.8% increase
  • July 17th: $50.23 billion, 7.2% increase

We've already seen evidence of local brands taking share in China, the market that Tim Cook believes is most important to Apple's future success. According to Kantar, iOS market share for the three months ending in February 2017 was just 13.2%, down 8.9 percentage points from the year-ago period. This was the lowest figure for urban China since July 2014, with Android phones gaining more than Apple lost in terms of percentage points.

However, I'm a bit more worried this year about tech giants Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF) and Alphabet/Google (GOOG, GOOGL). Last year, Samsung had a disaster on its hands with the

This article was written by

Bill Maurer profile picture
I am a market enthusiast and part-time trader. I started writing for Seeking Alpha in 2011, and it has been a tremendous opportunity and learning experience. I have been interested in the markets since elementary school, and hope to pursue a career in the investment management industry. I have been active in the markets for several years, and am primarily focused on long/short equities. I hold a Bachelor of Science Degree from Lehigh University, where I double majored in Finance and Accounting, with a minor in History. My major track focused on Investments and Financial Analysis. While at Lehigh, I was the Head Portfolio Manager of the Investment Management Group, a student group that manages three portfolios, one long/short and two long only. I have had two internships, one a summer internship at a large bank, and another helping to manage the Lehigh University Endowment for nearly a year. Disclaimer: Bill reminds investors to always do their own due diligence on any investment, and to consult their own financial adviser or representative when necessary. Any material provided is intended as general information only, and should not be considered or relied upon as a formal investment recommendation.

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