19K, 20K, 21K, 22K...

by: Bespoke Investment Group

The 1,000-point thresholds are dropping like flies these days. With the caveat that 1,000 points become an increasingly small percentage of the overall index as prices rise, the DJIA just crossed its fourth 1,000-point threshold since Trump's election last November. The table below shows the date that the DJIA has first crossed each 1,000-point threshold on a closing basis since it first closed above 1,000 back on 11/14/72. For each threshold, we show the date the DJIA first closed above that threshold, how many days transpired between that cross and the prior 1,000 point threshold, the percentage that each 1,000-point threshold represents of the index's price, and then how many upside and downside crosses the DJIA has had with each level.

Since the election, the DJIA has now crossed four 1,000-point thresholds, and with each one, there has been very little in the way of looking back. For instance, once the DJIA crossed 19,000, it never closed back below that level. For 20,000, once it crossed that level, it only closed below it again once, while 21,000 only saw two subsequent closes. In looking for comparable periods, the current period is somewhat similar to the late 1990s, when the DJIA also crossed several 1,000-point thresholds in very short order. In the current period, these levels have been coming and going a lot faster, but again, it's also important to remember that they represent a much smaller percentage of the overall index's value than the levels that were crossed in the 1990s. Finally, while it may seem as though the move from 21K to 22K was quick, at 154 calendar days (if that level holds between now and the closing bell), it was nearly five times longer than the time that elapsed between 20K and 21K (35 days) and two and a half times longer than the time it took to go from 19K to 20K.

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