Powerball Lessons

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Includes: SPHB, SPLV, SPY
by: Ploutos

Summary

While it has been eclipsed by the rare eclipse, the Powerball is heading for its second largest jackpot on record.

Preferences for lottery-like payoffs may also skew investor preferences in the stock market.

This article theorizes how investor behavior may create opportunities for patient investors who avoid the higher beta, high upside investments.

Now that the eclipse has come and gone, Americans can get back to what is really important - the Powerball. Eclipse discussions on the "news" have been replaced by discussions of the jackpot expected to approach $700M for Wednesday night's drawing.

People try to rationalize the moon-shot gamble as having positive expected value, given the size of the potential payout (a claim that still seems dubious given the realization of multiple winners and the large cut taken by the governments which administer the lottery). Across the country, people are ponying up a couple bucks for a ticket (or sometimes much more) just to dream for a moment what they would do with that life-changing windfall.

This preference for lotteries, society's hunt for asymmetric payoffs, is the link back to the broader capital markets. In any introductory finance class, students are taught that higher risk investments should be compensated with higher expected average returns. This makes intuitive sense, who would enter into a high-risk investment with a higher probability of downside if the same return could be made with much lower risk of loss?

This theory is canonized by the Capital Asset Pricing Model, a mathematical model used to determine an expected return of an asset added to a well-diversified portfolio, given that asset's beta or non-diversifiable risk. If that sounds like a lot of financial mumbo jumbo, it can be boiled down to the rather simple idea that in this framework high (low) beta assets should be characterized by higher (lower) expected returns.

Of course, if you look back over long-time intervals, higher beta stocks have not realized higher average returns than lower beta stocks. I harbor a belief that this long-run underperformance can be linked to the behavioral biases of the "Powerball craze," but first let's look at the data. Below is a graph of the benchmark S&P 500 Index (NYSEARCA:SPY) versus indices replicating its one-hundred lowest volatility (NYSEARCA:SPLV) and highest volatility constituents (NYSEARCA:SPHB). Over the quarter-century dataset, the lower volatility components have meaningfully outperformed (with lower variability of returns) and the higher volatility components have meaningfully lagged with more variable returns as depicted below.

In Capturing Structural Alpha in Low Volatility Small Caps, I showed that low volatility strategies have outperformed in a period dating back to 1963. Low volatility stocks have outperformed high volatility stocks over each capitalization cohort over this more than half century time horizon.

That relationship has continued in 2017 in what has broadly been a bumper crop-type year of gains for stocks. High beta stocks have still underperformed low volatility stocks.


What does this have to do with the Powerball? In the aforementioned Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), one of the underpinning assumptions is that investors are rational and risk-averse. Over the last two generations, a new field of study, behavioral economics, has sought to demonstrate how individuals' cognitive biases impact decision making. The studies of these cognitive biases have their roots in the seminal work of Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman and frequent collaborator Amos Tversky. The bias described herein - preference for skewness - is both well documented in finance literature and likely contributes to the demonstrable investor preference for high volatility stocks that has, in turn, created the Low Volatility Anomaly, or why lower risk stocks have outperformed across markets and long time intervals.

Investors with a strong preference for skewness will not hold the market portfolio because their upside potential from idiosyncratic bets has been diversified away. Every time someone pulls a slot machine handle, buys a Powerball ticket, and often, when they buy high beta stocks, people are demonstrating a preference for high-upside bets. People don't want to be a little better off, they want life-changing gains. The long-run underperformance of high-beta stocks is perhaps driven by an irrational bid from investors seeking lottery-like payoffs that have driven those securities to levels consistent with lower realized forward returns. This behavior could contribute to the boom-bust nature of the returns of riskier stocks.

Ironically, capturing skewness has been shown to be a key to long-term investing success. In Why Many Investors Fail, I summarized academic research that shows that the market's long-term gains have been generated by a relatively small number of companies. In fact, Henrick Bessembinder, a professor at Arizona State University, showed that while on average stocks generate an equity risk premium, the median stock generates a return that has trailed Treasury bills. How does skewness drive long-term returns? Intuitively, over long time intervals, the maximum you are going to lose is 100%, but cumulative gains can be astronomical. The right tail of the return distribution is much longer. Unfortunately, the most common cumulative return over a decade long holding period for stocks in a database of all U.S. stocks dating back to the 1920s is -100%. The positive excess returns for the broad market is a function of that long right tail. The modal return on stocks is that of the Powerball - you lose your money.

If higher beta stocks are characterized by lower expected returns, then lower beta stocks have to be characterized by higher expected returns. If investors' preferences for high upside payoffs make those securities relatively expensive, I will gladly buy the lower risk stocks these investors shun for relatively inexpensive prices and earn higher risk-adjusted returns over time. I have not purchased a Powerball ticket, but I will continue to purchase low volatility stocks. Those are the types of companies that are more likely to compound over generations and end up delivering the desired positive skewness in returns.

This article will not generate even a whisper of conversation compared to the din of the Powerball clamor, and that is likely welcome news to the patient practitioners of strategies that profit from taking the other side of trades from irrational lottery-seeking market participants. If you think you are going to make your fortune from a lottery ticket, you have been staring at the eclipse too long. Long-term focused investing and the discipline to avoid those stocks with disproportionate downside for their chance of upside is how you can make real life-changing gains.

Disclaimer: My articles may contain statements and projections that are forward-looking in nature, and therefore inherently subject to numerous risks, uncertainties and assumptions. While my articles focus on generating long-term risk-adjusted returns, investment decisions necessarily involve the risk of loss of principal. Individual investor circumstances vary significantly, and information gleaned from my articles should be applied to your own unique investment situation, objectives, risk tolerance, and investment horizon.

Disclosure: I am/we are long SPY.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.