Australia: Strong Consumer Confidence Leads the Way

Includes: EWA, FXA
by: Enzio von Pfeil

Here's a deeper interpretation of last week's stellar Australian consumer confidence index reading:

1. What the mood is

The mood remains investor friendly. The Economic Time™ in Australia is characterized by an

• excess supply of money, and an
• excess demand for goods

Here are more recent data supporting Australia's Economic Clock™:

Unemployment. A hiring boom has depressed unemployment to its lowest since 1974;
Consumer confidence. Thus, in June, consumer confidence stood at an index level of 120.8: a reading exceeding 100 means that optimists outnumber pessimists;
Petrol prices. Next to low unemployment, falling petrol prices are acting like a tax cut: people are keeping more of their money, so they can spend more.
Business confidence. Last month it stayed at its two-year high, and
Currency. Rising commodity prices have pushed the A$ to its highest since February 1989.

Our guess is that the Central Bank won't raise rates until it sees clear inflation pressures. But these are a long way off. For one thing, a rising A$ means that imports cheapen in A$ terms, so down goes imported inflation. This downward pressure keeps a lid on domestic prices, of course.

How to Make Money Off This Idea
Keep buying the market. In particular, keep focusing on

• resources stocks;
• companies that are involved in the "resources ladder," e.g. transport, processing, packaging;
• consumer stocks, on account of strong consumer confidence, and on
• brokers: if the market keeps performing, their own profits must keep rising.