A Tale Of Two U.S. Housing Markets

|
Includes: BXUB, BXUC, CRF, DDM, DIA, DOG, DXD, EEH, EPS, EQL, FEX, FWDD, HUSV, IVV, IWL, IWM, JHML, JKD, OTPIX, PPLC, PPSC, PSQ, QID-OLD, QLD, QQEW, QQQ, QQQE, QQXT, RSP, RWL, RWM, RYARX, RYRSX, SBUS, SCAP, SCHX, SDOW, SDS, SFLA, SH, SMLL, SPDN, SPLX, SPSM, SPUU, SPXE, SPXL, SPXN, SPXS, SPXT, SPXU-OLD, SPXV, SPY, SQQQ, SRTY, SSO, SYE, TALL, TNA, TOL, TQQQ, TWM, TZA, UDOW, UDPIX, UPRO, URTY, USA, USSD, USWD, UWM, VFINX, VOO, VTWO, VV, ZLRG
by: Hedgeye

Summary

The high-end is booming. The low-end continues to struggle.

A barometer of high-end spending: Luxury goods consumption is up almost 12% overall in 2017.

The low end market is not nearly as robust, but showing signs of life. We may be reaching a key inflection point in Millennial demand.

Call it the tale of two housing markets. The high-end is booming. The low-end continues to struggle.

On the high-end housing side, shares of luxury home builder Toll Brothers (TOL) have outpaced the S&P 500 so far this year. “The high end builders have been very, very strong - up 30% - since the start of the year,” Hedgeye Housing Analyst Josh Steiner says in the video below.

It’s easy to understand why. Luxury consumers have been a boon for the U.S. economy all year. According to the latest numbers compiled by Hedgeye, luxury goods consumption is up almost 12% overall in 2017. “[There’s been] a huge reflation in growth in luxury goods buying activity out there,” Steiner says. (Note: The top 20% of American income earners constitute 40% of total US consumer spending.)

On the other end of the spectrum, the low end market is not nearly as robust, but showing positive signs of life. “The good news is also the bad news,” Steiner says. “The inventory is incredibly tight. It’s tough to grow volume when there’s not inventory, but it has a pretty powerful tailwind for pricing.”

Steiner points out that the number of Millennials living with their parents appears to have finally reached its peak of 32% currently and is rolling over. In addition, Millennial homeownership rates are starting to climb.

Watch the clip above for more.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.