This article will be the first in a three-part series on Greece (GREK). We very strongly believe that Greece has begun its next economic cycle and that the two best plays on the country will be trade and tourism, but we are also of the view that the keys to its next economic boom are located outside of Greece.
We will construct our bullish narrative on Greece in three stages:
- In this article, we will present some leading economic indicators on the country that will convince the reader that a new economic cycle has indeed begun.
- In the next article, we will elaborate on the two key areas that we believe will offer the best deltas on Greece's next economic growth wave.
- In the third and final piece, we will solve the mystery of the missing keys to the country's next economic boom.
For years, Greece has become synonymous with everything wrong, but underneath this widespread belief, it has done many things right. The country has undergone some very painful public reforms, including huge pension cuts, massive deficit reduction, and mass privatizations. The tough, Troika-led debtors have indeed forced Greece on a path of economic reform, and things finally seem to be coming together. In the attached presentation, we will demonstrate the uptick we see in Greece's economy.
We hope you enjoy the charts, and we look forward to your comments.
Disclaimer: Rigel Mercantile Limited specializes in Macro/Value Research and Systematic Trading. The views expressed above are our discretionary ideas that we have arrived at using discretionary analysis and, therefore, are limited to our discretionary portfolios only. Our systematic strategies may or may not have a position (long or short) in the securities mentioned above. Under no circumstances should the information contained herein be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to purchase, any security or investment service. The information presented herein is presented in summary form and is, therefore, subject to qualification and further explanation.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.