About A Boeing 767 Relaunch

Oct. 27, 2017 7:15 AM ETThe Boeing Company (BA)69 Comments

Summary

  • The Boeing 767 would make sense for low-cost carriers and charter airlines.
  • The Boeing 797 has not been launched yet.
  • The Boeing 767MAX is unlikely to be what customers are looking for.

During the Q3 earnings call, CEO of The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA), Dennis Muilenberg, hinted at a possible relaunch of the Boeing 767-300ER after a question from an analyst.

Muilenberg said the following:

If you look at that current market outlook that I mentioned earlier, sort of in that small widebody class, if you will, about 5,000-airplane market size out there is part of our current market outlook. So it's a substantial marketplace. The 767 is well positioned. And for some customers, it's a great value proposition.

Forward view of aircraft, showing fuselage profile, two circular engines

In this article, I want to have a look at why a re-launch could possibly make sense.

Proven history

So first of all, an important point is that the Boeing 767-300ER has a proven history. 583 aircraft were ordered, with 583 delivered since 1988 and roughly 400 in operation. With the first aircraft delivered in 1988, any aircraft delivered in 1988 would be 29 years old by now, or in other words, there likely is a replacement cycle that is going to kick in, and Boeing has nothing to offer that matches the Boeing 767-300ER at this time.

A screenshot of a cell phoneDescription generated with high confidence

Figure 1: Boeing 767-300ER deliveries (Source: AeroAnalysis)

What we see is that is that up to and including the year 2003, 493 Boeing 767-300ER aircraft have been delivered. Using a retirement age of 20 years, the first aircraft slated for retirement reached that age in 2008. With fuel-saving winglets and lower fuel prices, it is likely that airlines have decided to push the retirement of the Boeing 767-300ER beyond the 25-year mark towards the 30-year mark.

Some of the older aircraft reach the retirement age of 30 years by 2020, with a second peak around 2030. This opens up opportunities for Boeing.

At first, you would be inclined to say that there are chances to replace the

This article was written by

Dhierin Bechai profile picture
14.28K Followers
In-depth insights from an expert on the aerospace and airline industries
Dhierin is a leading contributor covering the aerospace industry on Seeking Alpha and the founder of The Aerospace Forum. With his Aerospace Engineering background he has a more indepth knowledge about aerospace products enabling him to cover a complex niche. Most of his reports will be about companies in the aerospace industry or airlines industry, comparing products and looking at market forecasts providing investors with unique and thorough insights. Dhierin has accumulated nearly 20 million views never failing to spark healthy and thoughtful discussions for investors and aerospace professionals.

His reports have been cited by CNBC, the Puget Sound Business Journal, the Wichita Business Journal and National Public Radio. His expertise is also leveraged in Luchtvaartnieuws Magazine, the biggest aviation magazine in the Benelux.

AeroAnalysis offers wide variety of services, ranging from providing data and cost models to consultancy possibilities. Check out our website for more information. Though we believe in the strong nature of our analysis, we are in no way giving buy or sell recommendations and advise everyone to do their own due diligence before making investment decisions.

Disclosure: I am/we are long BA. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Recommended For You

Comments (69)

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.