Entering text into the input field will update the search result below

November 2017: Natural Gas Demand Overview And Forecast



  • EIA has released natural gas monthly figures for August. We review them and provide our latest forecast.
  • Exports now equate to more than 11% of national consumption.
  • Natural gas consumption in the U.S. should to stay strong but grow very erratically.
  • We currently expect natural gas storage to peak at 3,794 bcf in the week ending November 3.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has recently released their natural gas monthly statistics for August, 2017. In this article, we will briefly review their consumption and exports figures, then look at our latest estimates for September and October and conclude with our forecast for November, December and January.

Aggregate demand (national consumption + exports) for American natural gas was down 4.20% yoy in August. Consumption dropped by 6.10%, as weather was relatively cool (there were some 14% fewer cooling degree days than in 2016). Conversely, exports surged by 15.30%. On a 12-month average basis, the growth in total demand stayed positive and has exceeded that of consumption by 2.8 percentage points - the second-largest value on record so far (see the chart below). Indeed, total demand has been growing faster than consumption since May 2015, pointing to the rising weight of exports within the overall demand structure.

In the chart below, you can clearly see how the growth rates in consumption and exports have diverged over the past year or so - while consumption is falling, exports are rising, and total demand growth on balance stays positive, although it has slowed over the past months. Previously, however, total demand growth was almost entirely driven by national consumption.

Source: EIA, Bluegold Research estimates and calculations

Pipeline and LNG exports combined reached 247.0 bcf in August, which is equivalent to 11.90% of national natural gas consumption on a monthly basis. On a 12-month average basis, exports now equate to more than 11% of national consumption, and their share in the aggregate demand structure has essentially doubled over the past two years.

Source: EIA, Bluegold Research estimates and calculations

Exports remain the fastest-growing source of demand for American natural gas. While total demand increased by 13.80% (from January 2012 to August 2017), exports expanded by 94.00% over

This article was written by

Bluegold Trader profile picture
High quality, up to date analytics (natural gas, crude oil and forex)
Bluegold Trader (BGT) is an independent provider of public market information and trading analytics. BGT is a one-stop shop for all your research needs in energy and forex trading.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.