Entering text into the input field will update the search result below

Colombia: A Failed Peace And The Impending End Of The Economic Dream

Nov. 02, 2017 1:36 PM ETBNO, USO, GXG23 Comments
Caiman Valores profile picture
Caiman Valores


  • Colombia's Santos government reached a peace agreement with the FARC in 2016.
  • Despite the deal Colombia's civil conflict has yet to end.
  • The promised social and economic benefits of peace have failed to materialize.

It was only late last year when the 32nd president of the Republic of Colombia (GXG) eagerly announced the end of Latin America’s longest running insurgency and peace with the crisis riven country’s largest insurgent group, Las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo, or FARC. This supposedly brought an end to the 53-year armed conflict and garnered Santos the 2016 Nobel Peace Prize.

It was heralded as a victory for the people of Colombia that would significantly bolster the Andean nation’s economy as well as deliver greater opportunity, stability and wealth for the conflict weary Colombian people. Just over a year later not all is where it was promised to be and in this series of articles I will be taking a closer look at Colombia, the issues it is facing and whether the nation can truly reach its potential.

Peace is shaping up to an economic disaster

So far many of the promises that were made have failed to materialize and the growing insecurity in many parts of the country, rising corruption and stalled economic growth which along with the estimated $44 billion price tag for peace has left the government fiscally strained.

According to some sources the peace deal would boost Colombia’s economic growth to as high as 6% annually and triple foreign investment. Yet these figures have proven to be nothing but a mirage.

For 2015 Colombia’s gross domestic product or GDP expanded by 3.1% year over year but that plummeted to 2% for 2016 and while it will rise for 2017 it won’t be anywhere near the ambitious targets postulated by the Santos administration. By the second quarter 2017 GDP had inched up by a mere 1.3% year over year which was a 10-basis point increase over the first quarter and the equivalent quarter in 2016. Unsurprisingly, the IMF only expects

This article was written by

Caiman Valores profile picture
Investment specialist natural resources & precious metals. Focus on geopolitical & economic risk. Emphasis on Latin America. MBL USyd MA Pol Sci UNSW.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.