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Neurocrine's Ingrezza Launch Continues To Exceed Expectations

Stephen Simpson profile picture
Stephen Simpson


  • Neurocrine delivered a fantastic first full quarter of Ingrezza sales, more than quadrupling the average sales estimate.
  • Teva's launch of Austedo will create some turbulence, but Ingrezza still looks like the better drug, and initial acceptance has been very encouraging.
  • Neurocrine's other pipeline projects continue to advance, with AbbVie getting a priority review on elagolix in endometriosis.
  • Investors should be careful about getting too far ahead of Ingrezza's launch, but these shares look undervalued below the mid-to-high $70s.

To quote from the A-Team, "I love it when a plan comes together." Although it is still very early, Neurocrine Biosciences (NASDAQ:NBIX) is executing well on the launch of its wholly-owned drug Ingrezza, and its partner AbbVie (ABBV) continues to move elagolix closer to the finish line for both endometriosis and uterine fibroids - indications that could both support more than $1 billion in royalty-generating sales. Additionally, Neurocrine continues to develop its clinical pipeline, with the company having started a new Phase IIb study for Ingrezza in pediatric Tourette's and planning to move its drug for congenital adrenal hyperplasia (or CAH) into a Phase II proof-of-concept study.

The market is reacting quite positively to the much better than expected revenue for Ingrezza, and the strong initial launch is encouraging, but the next few quarters could be a little more volatile as Neurocrine will have to contend with a competitive launch from Teva (TEVA), sampling, and shifts between the 40mg and 80mg doses. Even so, I believe the shares are undervalued now, with multiple clinical events on the horizon.

Ingrezza's First Full Quarter Was A Beauty

I've said it before, and I'm saying it again - the first couple of quarters of a drug's launch can be deceptive, both good and bad. So, I'm not going to go crazy over the very strong numbers that Neurocrine posted for the third quarter, but I will say (at the risk of stating the obvious) that a huge beat is quite a bit better than a miss!

Neurocrine reported $46 million in sales for Ingrezza's first full quarter of availability. The sell-side was looking for around $11 million in sales, with the highest estimate I could find closer to $17 million. Clearly, Neurocrine's efforts to work with prescribing physicians ahead of the launch are paying off with strong initial interest and

This article was written by

Stephen Simpson profile picture
Stephen Simpson is a freelance financial writer and investor. Spent close to 15 years on the Street (sell-side, buy-side, equities, bonds); now a semi-retired raccoon rancher. That last part isn't entirely true. Probably.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long NBIX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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