Fox, Viacom And Walgreen Are Top Nasdaq Gainers Are Per Oct/Nov Broker Targets

Summary

• "The Nasdaq-100 Index includes 100 of the largest domestic and international non-financial companies listed on The Nasdaq Stock Market based on market-capitalization." Of those 100, 54 pay dividends over 0.25%.
• Top ten broker target-estimated NASDAQ net gains as of 11/1/17 ranged 16.69%-45.2% from HAS, KHC, CSX, MDLZ, CMCSA, VOD, WDC, WBA, VIAB, & FOX.
• 54 dividend NASDAQ 100 index stocks ranged in estimated yield from 0.25% to 6.82%. Top ten, MXIM, GILD, CA, PAYX, KHC, VIAB, CSCO, QCOM, VOD, & STX averaged 3.82%.
• NASDAQ 100 index top ten firms by broker target price upsides, KHC, HAS, MDLZ, CSX, VOD, CMCST, WBA, WDC, VIAB, & FOX, averaged 25.82% in broker-estimated price gains.
• $5k invested in the lowest-priced five top-yield NASDAQ dividend dog stocks showed 27.6% more net-gain than from $5k invested in all ten.  Low price small dogs again dominated the October/November NASDAQ 54.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Expected 16.69% To 45.2 % Net Gains From October/November Top Ten NASDAQ Dogs

Three of ten top yield NASDAQ 100 dividend dogs were identified as being among the top ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart above). So, this yield-based forecast for NASDAQ 100 dogs was graded by Wall St. brokers as 30% accurate.

Ten probable profit-generating trades were revealed in YCharts for October/November 2018:

Twenty-First Century Fox (FOX) was expected to net $452.03, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from twenty-nine analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 28% more than the market as a whole.

Viacom (VIAB) was projected to net $409.78, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from thirty-three analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 55% more than the market as a whole.

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) was projected to net $287.27 based on dividends, plus a median target estimate from twenty-five brokers, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 28% more than the market as a whole.

Western Digital (WDC) netted $286.59 based on a median target price estimate from twenty-nine analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 26% more than the market as a whole.

Vodafone Group (VOD) was projected to net $266.21, based on target price estimates from four analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 14% less than the market as a whole.

Comcast (CMCSA) was projected to net $247.46, based on a median target estimates from thirty-three analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 2% less than the market as a whole.

Mondelez International (MDLZ) was projected to net $176.51 based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from twenty-three analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 1% less than the market as a whole.

CSX Corporation (CSX) was projected to net $176.41 based on a median target price estimate from twenty-seven analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 35% more than the market as a whole.

Kraft Heinz (KHC) was projected to net $173.82, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from twenty analysts, less broker fees. A Beta number was not available for KHC.

Hasbro (HAS) was projected to net $166.91, based on a median target price estimate from fifteen analysts, plus the estimated annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 9% less than the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 26.43% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 16% more than the market as a whole.

Actionable Conclusion (11-13): (Bear Alerts) Analysts Projected Three NASDAQ Dividend Dogs To Lose 4%-7% By October/November, 2018

The probable losing trades revealed by Y-Charts for 2018 were:

Paychex (PAYX) projected a loss of $40.89 based on dividend and a median target price estimate from nineteen analysts including $20 of broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 2% less than the market as a whole.

Xilinx (XLNX) projected a loss of $61.62 based on dividend and a median target price estimate from twenty-five analysts including $20 of broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 10% more than the market as a whole.

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) projected a loss of $71.30 based on dividend and a median target price estimate from eighteen analysts including $20 of broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 16% less than the market as a whole.

Average net loss in dividend and price was 5.79% on $3k invested as $1k in each of these three NASDAQ dividend stocks. This loss estimate was subject to average volatility 16% less than the market as a whole.

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".

54 Top NASDAQ 100 Dividend Dogs By Yield

Actionable Conclusions (14-23): 10 Top NASDAQ 54 Dividend Stocks By Yield

Top ten NASDAQ 100 stocks selected 11/1/17 by yield represented seven of eleven Morningstar sectors. Top yielding stock, Seagate Technology (STX) [1] was the first of five technology firms in the top ten.

The other four technology representatives placed third, fourth, eighth, and tenth. They were, Qualcomm (QCOM) [3], Cisco Systems (CSCO) [4], CA (CA) [8], and Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) [10].

One communication services reresentative placed second, Vodafone Group [2]. A lone consumer cyclical representative placed fourth, Viacom [4] and a single Consumer defensive representative followed in firth place, Kraft Heinz [5]. One industrial representative placed sixth, Paychex [6].

Finally, a single Healthcare firm placed ninth, by yield. Gilead Sciences (GILD) [-], to complete the NASDAQ 100 top ten yield pack for October/November.

Actionable Conclusions: (24-33) Top Ten NASDAQ 100 Dogs Showed 16.16% To 45.78% Upsides To November, 2018, With (34) A -7.11% Loss The Lowest Of Four Losers Reported

To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provide a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield "dog" metrics, analyst mean price target estimates provided yet another tool to dig out bargains.

Actionable Conclusions: Wall St. Wizards Forecast (35) A 11.58% Price Upside And (36) A 12.96% Net Gain From 30 NASDAQ 100 Upside Dogs Come October/November, 2018

NASDAQ 100 top thirty stocks were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of November 1, 2017, and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2018.

A hypothetical $1,000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter, the analyst mean target price gauged the stock price upsides and net gains including dividends, less broker fees, as of 2018.

Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $10,000 invested as $1k in each of the stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those ten stocks created data points for 2017. Projections based on estimated dividend amounts from $1,000 invested in the ten stocks and aggregate 1-year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance created the 2018 data points green for price and blue for dividend.

YChart analysts' median 1-year targets projected a 9.4% lower dividend from $10k invested as $1k in ten dogs in this group while aggregate single share price for those ten was projected to increase by 9.6% in the coming year.

Notice then the price vector is higher and headed away from the projected dividend pathway. This indicates an increasing over-priced, over-sold, condition for these top NASDAQ dogs. The dividends may be solid, but you are paying a steep price bid up by Mr. Market.

The number of analysts contributing to the target price estimate for each stock was noted in the next to the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was optimal for a valid projection estimate. Estimates provided by one analyst were generally not applied (n/a).

A beta (risk) ranking for each stock was provided in the far right column of the above chart. A beta of 1 meant the stock's price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta number indicated the degree of a stock's movement opposite of market direction.

Analysts Cast An 27.6% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced Of NASDAQ Top 10 Dividend Stocks To October/November, 2018

Ten top NASDAQ 100 dividend dogs were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend / price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.

As noted above, top ten NASDAQ 100 dividend dogs selected 11/1/17 showing the highest dividend yields represented seven of eleven in the Morningstar sector scheme.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Projected (37) 5 Lowest-Priced of the Top Ten Highest-Yield NASDAQ 100 Dogs To Fetch 16.74% Vs. (38) 13.12% Net Gains by All Ten by October/November, 2018

$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten Dividend NASDAQ 100 kennel by yield were predicted to produce 27.6% more gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all of those ten. The very lowest priced NASDAQ 100 top yield dog, Viacom, was projected to deliver the best net gain of 40.98%.

The five lowest-priced top yield NASDAQ 100 dividend dogs for November 1 were: Viacom; Vodafone Group; CA, Inc. ;Cisco Systems; Seagate Technology, with prices ranging from $24.78 to $36.96.

Five higher-priced NASDAQ 100 dividend dogs for November 1 were: Maxim Integrated Products; Qualcomm; Paychex; Gilead Sciences; Kraft Heinz, whose prices ranged from $52.33 to $77.70.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

See my instablog for specific instructions about how to best apply the dividend dog data featured in this article, this glossary instablog to interpret my abbreviated headings, and this instablog to aid your safe investing. --Fredrik Arnold

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in YahooFinance. Dog photo: investorplace.com

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long CSCO, INTC. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.