Energy Transfer Still The Top Dividend Contender Dog In Terms Of Gains And Yield

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Includes: AFSI, APU, BPL, ENB, EPD, ET, HEP, OHI, OMI, SCG, SEP, SKT, TCP, TLP, VGR, WES
by: Fredrik Arnold
Summary

Contender Dogs are distinguished by 10-24 continuous years of increasing dividends.

Broker target estimated November Dividend Contender top ten net gains ranged from 20.99% to 63.57%, and were topped by ETP as selected on 10/31/17 and gauged on 11/7/17.

30 Top Contender dog stocks yield ranged from 4.48% to 13.03%. The top ten averaged an 8.39% annual yield.

Top ten price upsides as predicted for BPL, SCG, SKT, TLP, ENB, OMI, EPD, WES, AFSI, and  ETP averaged 27.61% per one-year broker targets.

$5k invested in the lowest-priced five November top-yield Contender stocks saw 7.4% more net gain than from $5k invested in all ten, per broker calculations.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Bet 20.99% To 63.57% Net Gains For Ten Contender Dogs By November 2018

Four of ten top dividend-yielding Contender dogs were verified as being among the top ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. So this month the dog strategy for the Dividend Contenders was graded by Wall St. wizards as 40% accurate.

Ten probable profit-generating trades were revealed in YCharts:

Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) was projected to net $635.71, based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from twenty analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed volatility 1% more than the market as a whole.

AmTrust Financial Services (AFSI) was projected to net $433.32, based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates from seven analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 20% more than the market as a whole.

Enterprise Products (EPD) netted $298.55 based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates by twenty-five analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 7% less than the market as a whole.

TransMontaigne Partners (TLP) was projected to net $276.38, based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates from three analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 75% less than the market as a whole.

Owens & Minor (OMI) was projected to net $271.56, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from seven analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 1% less than the market as a whole.

Buckeye Partners (BPL) was projected to net $268.22, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from fourteen analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 20% more than the market as a whole.

Tanger Factory Outlet (SKT) was projected to net $266.23, based on dividends, plus the median of annual price estimates from ten analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 64% less than the market as a whole.

Enbridge (ENB) was projected to net $257.45, based on a median target price estimate from eighteen analysts, combined with projected annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 34% less than the market as a whole.

SCANA (SCG) was projected to net $234.21, based on a mean target price estimate from eleven analysts, combined with projected annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 81% less than the market as a whole.

Spectra Energy Partners (SEP) was projected to net $209.91, based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates from sixteen analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 28% less than the market as a whole.

Average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 31.52% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 24% less than the market as a whole.

Top 30 Contender Dogs Represented 9 Sectors In November

Yield (dividend / price) results from here November 7 verified by YahooFinance for thirty stocks from nine of eleven Morningstar sectors revealed the actionable conclusions discussed in this article.

The U.S. Dividend Contenders are maintained by Dave Fish of Moneypaper's DirectInvesting.com, whose articles appear on Seeking Alpha. They are selected based on "10-24 straight years of higher dividends." The contender list was published 10/31/17 and the quotes were gathered as of market close 11/7/17.

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs."

Top 30 Dividend Contenders

These 30 U.S. Dividend Contenders were selected based on "10-24 straight years of higher dividends."

Actionable Conclusions (11-20) Dividend Dog Metrics Sorted 10 Top Contender Stocks By Yield

Top ten Contender Dividend dogs selected 10/31/17 showing top yields calculated 11/7/17, represented just four of the Morningstar eleven sectors: (1) energy [7 listed]; (2) real estate [1 listed]; (3) utilities [1 listed]; (4) consumer defensive [1 listed].

Top Contender stock by yield, Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) [1] was the tops of the seven Energy firms listed. The remaining energy firms placed second, fifth, sixth, and, eighth, through tenth: Buckeye Partners (BPL) [2]; Holly Energy Partners (HEP) [5]; Western Gas Partners (WES) [6]; TC Pipelines (TCP) [8]; TransMontaigne Partners (TLP) [9]; Spectra Energy Partners (SEP) [10].

The one Real Estate representative placed third: Omega Healthcare (OHI) [3]. A single Utility placed fourth, by yield: AmeriGas Partners (APU) [4]. Finally a consumer defensive stock placed seventh, Vector Group (VGR) [7] to complete the top ten November Contender dogs by yield.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Ten Contender Dogs Showed 19.31% To 52.54% Upsides, While (31-34) Four Showed Downsides Smaller Than Estimated Dividends Earned To November 2018

To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provide a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield "dog" metrics, analyst mean price target estimates provided another tool to dig out bargains.

Actionable Conclusions: Wall St. Wizards Wanted (35) A 12.29% Median Target Price Upside and (36) A 15.67% Gain From 30 Contender Upside Dogs For November 2018

Contender stocks were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of November 7, 2017, and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2018.

A hypothetical $1,000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter, the analyst mean target price gauged the stock price upsides and net gains including dividends, less broker fees, as of 2018.

Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $10,000 invested as $1k in each of the stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those ten stocks created data points for 2017. Projections based on estimated dividend amounts from $1,000 invested in the ten stocks and aggregate 1-year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance created the 2018 data points green for price and blue for dividend.

YCharts analyst median 1-year targets projected an 11.2% lower dividend from $10k invested as $1k in ten dogs in this group while aggregate single share price for those ten was projected to increase by 10% in the coming year. Notice, price versus dividend in the coming year forecasts possible overbought conditions ahead for the Contender top yield dogs as the projected price and dividend vectors narrow their gap to within $120 of convergence in 2018.

The number of analysts contributing to the target price estimate for each stock was noted in the next to the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was optimal for a valid projection estimate. Estimates provided by one analyst were generally not applied (n/a).

A beta (risk) ranking for each stock was provided in the far right column of the above chart. A beta of 1 meant the stock's price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta number indicated the degree of a stock's movement opposite of market direction.

Brokers Estimated A 7.38% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced Dividend Contender Stocks To November, 2018. Bargains Flowed From Low Priced "Small Dogs"

Ten top Dividend Contender dogs were culled by yield for their monthly update from here. Yield (dividend / price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.

As noted above, top ten Dividend Contender dogs selected 10/31/17 showing the highest dividend yields as of 11/7/17 represented four sectors from the Morningstar eleven sector scheme.

Actionable Conclusions: (37) Analysts Imagined 5 Lowest-Priced of the Top Ten Highest-Yield Contender Dogs Fetching 23.93% Vs. (38) 22.28% Net Gains by All Ten by November 2018

$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten Contender kennel by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 7.38% more net gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in each of all ten. The very lowest priced Contender dividend dog, Energy Transfer Partners (ETP), was projected to deliver the best net gain of 63.57%.

The five lowest-priced Contender dividend dogs for October 31 were: Energy Transfer Partners (ETP); Vector Group (VGR); Omega Healthcare (OHI); Holly Energy Partners (HEP); TransMontaigne Partners (TLP), with prices ranging from $17.34 to $42.21.

Five higher-priced Contender dividend dogs for October 31 were: Spectra Energy Partners (SEP); AmeriGas Partners (APU); Western Gas Partners (WES); Buckeye Partners (BPL); TC Pipelines (TCP), whose prices ranged from $42.69 to $55.10.

That distinction between the five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

See my instablog for specific instructions about how to best apply the dividend dog data featured in this article, this glossary instablog to interpret my abbreviated headings, and this instablog to aid your safe investing. -- Fredrik Arnold

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Three of these Contender dividend pups qualify as valuable catches! Find them among the now 52 Dogs of the Week I, or the 52 Dogs of the Week II found on The Dividend Dog Catcher premium site. A Dogs of the Week III (DC Safari to Success) portfolio launched September 8. Click here to subscribe or get more information.

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Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your Contender Dividend dog stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from Indexarb, YCharts, and Yahoo Finance; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call from Yahoo Finance. Dog photo taken from floofinsandco.com.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.