Welcome to the natural gas storage forecast edition of Natural Gas Daily!
EIA reported a -33 Bcf change yesterday, which was 2 Bcf lower than our forecast of -35 Bcf. Be sure to read our week of Nov. 24 storage report here.
For the week of Dec. 1, we expect a storage draw of -10 Bcf.
On a fundamental supply and demand basis, below is how each fundamental factor fared vs. the prior week:
Source: HFI Research
On the supply side, Lower 48 production increased by a material ~0.8 Bcf/d week-over-week and pushing US gas production to another all-time high. Canadian gas net imports fell week-over-week by ~0.2 Bcf/d. Total supplies were higher by ~0.6 Bcf/d.
On the demand side, all of the demand drivers were lower this week. Heating demand (residential/commercial) led the demand decline this week by ~1.1 Bcf/d. The material decline in demand contributed to the much more bearish w-o-w implied balance.
Net-net, the balance this week was much looser than last week:
If EIA does report a storage report of -10 Bcf, it would be compared with -43 Bcf last year and -69 Bcf for the five-year average.
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