Top Nasdaq Gainers Are Western Digital, Vodafone And Broadcom Per January Broker 1 Year Targets

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Includes: ADP, AMGN, AVGO, CA, CSCO, GILD, HAS, KHC, MCHP, MDLZ, MXIM, PAYX, QCOM, STX, SWKS, TXN, VIAB, VOD, WBA, WDC, XLNX
by: Fredrik Arnold

Summary

"The Nasdaq-100 Index includes 100 of the largest domestic and international non-financial companies listed on The Nasdaq Stock Market based on market capitalization." 50 pay dividends over 0.5% yield.

Top ten broker target-estimated NASDAQ net gains as of 1/8/18 ranged 13.47%-39.7% from HAS, MDLZ, KHC, MCHP, GILD, SWKS, WBA, AVGO, VOD, & WDC.

50 dividend NASDAQ 100 index stocks ranged in estimated yield from 0.51% to 5.48%. Top ten, MXIM, GILD, CSCO, AMGN, PAYX, CA, KHC, QCOM, VOD, & STX averaged 3.46%.

NASDAQ 100 index top ten firms by broker target price upsides, KHC, HAS, MDLZ, MCHP, GILD, WBA, AVGO, SWKS, VOD, & WDC, averaged 17.55% in broker-estimated price gains.

$5k invested in the lowest-priced five top-yield NASDAQ dividend dog stocks showed 43.32% LESS net-gain than from $5k invested in all ten.  High price big stocks dominated the January NASDAQ 50.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Predicted 13.47% To 39.7 % Net Gains From January Top Ten

Three of ten top yield NASDAQ 100 dividend stocks were identified as being among the top ten net gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart above). So, our yield-based forecast for NASDAQ 100 dogs was graded by Wall St. brokers as 30% accurate.

Ten probable profit-generating trades were revealed in YCharts for January 2019:

Western Digital (WDC) netted $396.99 based on a median target price estimate from twenty-nine analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 14% more than the market as a whole.

Vodafone Group (VOD) was projected to net $203.97, based on target price estimates from four analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 14% less than the market as a whole.

Broadcom (AVGO) was projected to net $172.20, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from twenty-nine analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 3% more than the market as a whole.

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) was projected to net $164.83 based on dividends, plus a median target estimate from twenty-seven analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 25% more than the market as a whole.

Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) was projected to net $162.12 based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from twenty-nine analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 16% less than the market as a whole.

Gilead Sciences (GILD) was projected to net $159.84 based on a median target price estimate from thirty-one analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 10% more than the market as a whole.

Microchip Technology (MCHP) was expected to net $145.52, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from nineteen analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility equal to the market as a whole.

Kraft Heinz (KHC) was projected to net $136.35, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from twenty-one analysts, less broker fees. A Beta number was not available for KHC.

Mondelez International (MDLZ) was projected to net $135.08, based on a median target estimates from twenty-four analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility equal to the market as a whole.

Hasbro (HAS) was projected to net $134.66, based on a median target price estimate from sixteen analysts, plus the estimated annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 15% less than the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 18.12% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 1% more than the market as a whole.

Actionable Conclusion (11-14): (Bear Alerts) Analysts Projected Four NASDAQ Dividend Stocks To Lose 3.7%-7.8% By January, 2019

The probable losing trades revealed by Y-Charts to 2019 were:

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) projected a loss of $37.98 based on dividend and a median target price estimate from nineteen analysts including $20 of broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 17% less than the market as a whole.

Xilinx (XLNX) projected a loss of $62.07 based on dividend and a median target price estimate from twenty-five analysts including $20 of broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 8% more than the market as a whole.

Seagate Technology (STX) projected a loss of $69.57 based on dividend and a median target price estimate from twenty-six analysts including $20 of broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 72% more than the market as a whole.

Texas Instruments (TXN) projected a loss of $78.01 based on dividend and a median target price estimate from thirty-three analysts including $20 of broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 28% more than the market as a whole.

Average net loss in dividend and price was 6.19% on $4k invested as $1k in each of these four NASDAQ dividend stocks. This loss estimate was subject to average volatility 23% more than the market as a whole.

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".

50 Top NASDAQ 100 Dividend Stocks By Yield

Actionable Conclusions (15-24): 10 Top NASDAQ 50 Dividend Stocks By Yield

Top ten NASDAQ 100 stocks selected 1/8/18 by yield represented six of eleven Morningstar sectors. Top yielding stock, Seagate Technology (STX) [1] was the first of five technology firms in the top ten.

The other four technology representatives placed third, fifth, eighth, and tenth. They were, Qualcomm (QCOM) [3], CA (CA) [5], Cisco Systems (CSCO) [8], and Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) [10].

One communication services representative placed second, Vodafone Group (VOD) [2]. A single Consumer defensive representative showed in fourth place, Kraft Heinz (KHC) [4].

One industrial representative placed sixth, Paychex (PAYX) [6]. Two Healthcare firms placed seventh and ninth, by yield, Amgen (AMGN) [7], and Gilead Sciences, (GILD) [9], to complete the NASDAQ 100 top ten yield pack for January.

Actionable Conclusions: (25-34) Top Ten NASDAQ 100 Dogs Showed 12.45% To 39.24% Upsides To January, 2019, With (35) A -10.43% Loss The Lowest Of Nine Losers Listed

To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield "dog" metrics, analyst mean price target estimates became yet another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Cast An 43.32% Disadvantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced Of NASDAQ Top 10 Dividend Stocks To January, 2019

Ten top NASDAQ 100 dividend dogs were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend / price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.

As noted above, top ten NASDAQ 100 dividend dogs selected 1/8/18 showing the highest dividend yields represented six of the eleven Morningstar sectors.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Projected 5 Lowest-Priced of the Top Ten Highest-Yield NASDAQ 100 Dogs (36) To Fetch 2.89% Vs. (37) 5.10% Net Gains by All Ten by January, 2019

$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten Dividend NASDAQ 100 kennel by yield were predicted to produce 43.32% LESS gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The second lowest priced NASDAQ 100 top yield dog, Vodafone Group (VOD), was projected to deliver the best net gain of 20.4%.

The five lowest-priced top yield NASDAQ 100 dividend stocks for January 8 were: Viacom (VIAB); Vodafone Group (VOD); CA, Inc. (CA); Cisco Systems (CSCO); Seagate Technology (STX), with prices ranging from $28.94 to $46.00.

Five higher-priced NASDAQ 100 dividend dogs for January 8 were: Qualcomm (QCOM); Paychex (PAYX); Gilead Sciences (GILD); Kraft Heinz (KHC); Amgen (AMGN), whose prices ranged from $66.27 to $180.60.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

See my instablog for specific instructions about how to best apply the dividend dog data featured in this article, this glossary instablog to interpret my abbreviated headings, and this instablog to aid your safe investing. --Fredrik Arnold

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your NASDAQ 100 dog stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in YahooFinance. Dog photo: money.cnn.com

Disclosure: I am/we are long CSCO, INTC.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.