In my last two articles, we looked into the fundamental backdrop that's impacting blockchain technology, Bitcoin, and cryptocurrencies in general.
In this article is a price analysis to determine where Bitcoin stands in relation to the overall medium-to-long-term trend. In my opinion, there are a few early bullish signals flashing that indicate a potential push higher back to $19,000.
Any rise will bode well for those investing in the Bitcoin Investment Trust (OTCQX:GBTC) or following the ongoing developments if the first Bitcoin ETF through the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust ETF (COIN).
After rising 250%, BTC corrected with a 46% fall that would normally be considered backbreaking for any other instrument.
Bitcoin bounced higher by 36% off the most recent bottom on December 22nd.
It has since pulled back somewhat to current levels.
The daily chart below shows just how important Fibonacci levels are to traders for determining entries and exits. A Fib. level is merely a correction measured in percentage terms.
Two of the key Fib. levels are the 50% and the 61.8% levels. Popular entry strategies include going long at a key Fib. level while simultaneously placing a stop-loss order below the next Fib. level.
With the bounce off the 61.8% level (circled in green below), Bitcoin rallied hard after being pushed down to its lows on December 22nd.
The rally formed the wick of the candle circled and may be a sign of a reversal. Why? Sellers drove BTC down in December, but buyers looking to enter long positions jumped at the opportunity to get in at the key 61.8% level. The result was BTC bounced, as buyers took control of the market thus forming the wick.
If Bitcoin creates another higher high and higher low in the coming days, the December 22nd candle might just be the reversal sign the bulls have been looking for. More on the key levels to watch for in a bit.
Below is the same chart, but I drew trend lines and highlighted the consolidation that Bitcoin was mired in during the holidays.
The green trend line connects the highs of the downtrend in December.
On January 2nd, Bitcoin broke through the green trend line potentially breaking the back of the correction. This is a bullish signal. It signals that BTC is now putting in a higher high as opposed to lower highs during the correction.
The second bullish signal is how Bitcoin broke through the consolidation zone (blue region). Typically, not always, a break of a consolidation higher can lead to an extended move higher.
The sideways trading in December represents indecision by the market and when that indecision is broken, it's a signal that the market has concluded (in this case) that Bitcoin should be higher.
If you follow my articles on SeekingAlpha.com, you know consolidation and trend line breaks are part of my analysis along with the fundamental drivers in the markets. I've highlighted this pattern in many articles over the past year or so with crude oil, Bank of America (BAC), and the S&P 500 to name a few.
It's important to remember that the fundamentals drive the price action, not lines on a chart. And Bitcoin is no exception. However, the key levels that I've highlighted here are where traders might have buy and sell orders. If these key levels are broken and orders triggered because of the fundamentals, explosive moves in the direction of the break often occur.
Overall, I believe the fundamentals have shifted in favor of virtual currencies as blockchain technology has garnered more investment and favor lately. As a result, Bitcoin and others should benefit. However, the long-term value of BTC is still to be determined as the market continues to determine how cryptos fit within the financial system.
In the coming days, I'll have more analysis or news as it develops on other cryptocurrencies. Please become an "email alert" follower to have my next article and charts emailed to you once they're published (see below).
For Crypto Investors: If you'd like chart analysis for other cryptos or alt-coins, (I'll have an article in the coming days on Ethereum), please leave a comment below for the others you'd like analyzed. Thanks.
Good luck out there.
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Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.