A Want-To-Buy List For My 91 Stock Portfolio

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Includes: ABBV, ABR, ADP, AJX, AMGN, AMLP, AMZA, APLE, APO, BA, BDX, BMY, BUD, BXMT, CAH, CELG, CHMI, CL, CMI, CORR, CSCO, CVA, CVS, CVX, D, DEO, DLR, DNP, FSIC-OLD, GAIN, GIS, GPC, HD, HSY, IBM, INTC, JNJ, KHC, KIM, KMB, KO, LMT, LNT, MA, MCD, MDLZ, MDT, MET, MGEE, MMM, MO, MRCC, NEWT, NKE, NRZ, OHI, OXLC, OXY, PEP, PFE, PG, PM, RA, RC, SBRA, SBUX, SCG, SJM, SKT, SO, SPG, STAG, STOR, T, TGT, TPVG, UNIT, UNP, V, VLO, VTR, VZ, WEC, WPC, WPG, XEL, XOM
by: RoseNose
Summary

Current P/E and 5-year P/E comparisons and the price and earnings are shown to determine if a stock gets to be further investigated against current price.

Historic dividend yield for about 10 years is compared to current 2018 estimated yield for buy price suggestions.

5-year dividend yield is also shown and helps to determine the buy status.

These prices are only realistic suggestions and I always have hope to get something lower, but lately that just doesn't happen.

I cannot second guess Mr. Market and how it moves a stock price, but I can determine a range of desired yield and what I would be willing to pay if it has a desired dividend growth to go with it.

One of my articles here discusses the risk/reward with low low yield to high yield components in the portfolio. That risk/reward is always balanced on price and it is what gives you a margin of safety.

It is very important to know that low or even low low yield with high dividend growth will reward in time. Generally, low yield is equated with low risk and a higher yield with more risk. The dividend growth of a low yield will help in determining if the stock is a buy.

Some stocks right now are growing in price extremely magically and the yields are getting to the low low yield arena. Does that mean they are safer, well in some cases that is not so.

One example of that is Boeing. It is showing amazing growth in price and now a 2% dividend yield.

It has had years with no dividend growth and now lately showing 20% growth.

The blue line on the graph shows the normal P/E of 17.7.

The black line shows the price.

The white line in the green earnings area is the dividend.

This stock has a nice chart and upward movement, but the price is definitely ahead of itself in my opinion. Something to watch.

The average 17-year DGR is 13.6%. It currently is in a 7-year constant upward dividend payment and I see good things for it in the future. I just don’t see it as an amazing buy at this time. Its price is high and the balancing act for risk is in the price, perhaps not the company, or the dividend, but just the price.

So without further ado, I want to show the 91 stock Rose Portfolio by P/E.

I have 9 stocks out of the alphabetical list as they are at the companies themselves and not at a broker.

This portfolio yields ~4% and consists of taxable and Roth accounts.

The majority is in a Roth, so most of my changes, buys and sells have no tax consequences. I hold all RICs (Regulated Investment Companies) in the Roth.

Abbreviations used in the chart are taken from the paid subscriber service Fast Graphs:

Curr P/E= Price/Earnings on January 25th when this chart was made.

5yr P/E= Is the P/E average for the last 5 years.

Est 18 E = Estimated 2018 Earnings.

Price 4it = The price that the stock would sell for at those earnings and the average 5 yr P/E.

Div 18 = The estimated dividend for 2018.

P 1/25 = Is the price as on January 25th, 2018 for the stock.

The final column has in it:

I = Investigate and that means due diligence must continue.

Y= Yes, it is a buy using average 5 yr P/E - does not mean go get some, just know it qualifies here.

Any space means I don't have information and in the final column means not to bother to investigate for these metrics.

P/FFO* P/FFO*
stock
Curr P/E 5yr P/E Est 18 E Price 4it Div18 P 1/25
AbbVie (ABBV) 18.8 16 6.57 105.25 2.84 108.3 I
Arbor Realty (ABR) 8.3 8.5 0.98 8.35 0.76 8.56 I
Automatic Data Proc (ADP) 31.6 27.2 2.4 106.43 2.37 120.63
Great Ajax (AJX) 8.2 7.8 (2y) 2.02 15.75 1.28 13.78 Y
Amgen (AMGN) 15 14.8 12.8 192 5.28 190.08 I
AMLP ETF (AMLP) 11.75 0.84 11.77 I
AMZA ETF (AMZA) 8.95 1.32 8.86 I
Apple Hosp (APLE) 11.5* 11.7* 1.77 20.72 1.2 20
Apollo (APO) 11.9 10.4 3.02 31.55 1.56 36.4
Boeing (BA) 32.8 18 11.41 205 6.25 343.11
B-Dickinson (BDX) 24.1 17.9 10.82 193 3.24 242.35
Bristol Myers (BMY) 23.7 21.2 3.15 74.7 1.61 63.52 I
Anheuser (BUD) 27.1 22.5 5.11 115 3.85 113.68 I
Blackstone (BXMT) 12.4 12.7 2.61 32.36 2.48 31.91 I
Cardinal H (CAH) 14.4 15.5 5.01 77.41 1.85 73.99 Y
Celgene (CELG) 13.8 21.4 8.54 182.37 0 104.39 Y
Cherry Hill (CHMI) 8 8.6 1.98 17.1 1.96 17.62 I
Chimera-pB (CIM-b) 25.72 2 25.72 I
Colgate (CL) 26.6 21.9 3.09 67.67 1.68 77.31
Cummins (CMI) 18.2 14.9 11.76 175.69 4.32 189.4 I
CorEnergy (CORR) 10.4* 10.5* 3.56 37.3 3.04 37.88 Y
Cisco (CSCO) 17.4 12.1 2.46 29.81 1.25 41.9
Covanta (CVA) 19 14.5 1.08 15.66 1 16.45 I
CVS (CVS) 13.7 15.4 6.37 98.34 2.3 81.58 I
Chevron (CVX) 30.4 15.8 6 94.85 4.42 130.65
Dominion (D) 20.9 19.4 4.03 78.26 3.15 76.69 Y
Diageo (DEO) 23.9 19.4 6.37 123.77 3.71 144.93
Digital Realty (DLR) 18.1* 15.3* 6.55 100.18 3.96 111.41
FS Investment (FSIC-OLD) 9.6 9.8 0.81 7.97 0.76 7.7 I
Gladstone (GAIN) 10 8.1 1.03 8.37 0.89 11.06
General Mills (GIS) 19.3 17.4 3.11 53.99 2 60.14 I
Genuine Parts (GPC) 22.9 19.4 5.85 113.6 2.76 106.31 I
Home Depot (HD) 28 20.9 8.58 179 4 205.37
Hershey (HSY) 22.8 23.3 5.22 121 2.76 111.23 I
IBM (IBM) 12 11.6 13.82 159.8 6.27 165.47 I
Intel (INTC) 14 12.6 3.3 41.74 1.12 45.3
J & J (JNJ) 19.4 15.8 7.88 124.33 3.56 144.4
Kimco (KIM) 10.8* 15.7* 1.53 24.04 1.12 16.19 Y
Kimberly-Clark (KMB) 19.1 18.1 6.95 126 4.07 123.44 Y
Coca-Cola (KO) 25 20.1 2 40.3 1.57 47.84
Lockheed M (LMT) 25.1 15.5 13.97 216 8.2 334.72
Alliant (LNT) 20.4 17.2 2.11 36.21 1.34 40.39
Matercard (MA) 36.2 26.3 5.42 142.58 1 168.59
McDonald's (MCD) 26.7 19.4 7.08 137.49 4.07 175.66
Medtronic (MDT) 18.1 15.1 5.16 78.11 1.84 86.82
3M (MMM) 27.1 19 9.88 188 5.03 252.36
Monroe Cap (MRCC) 10.2 9.9 1.45 14.32 1.4 14.14 I
Newtek (NEWT) 10 14.4 1.83 26.33 1.69 17.84 I
NGL-pb (NGL-b) 24.76 2.25 24.76 Y
Nike (NKE) 28.7 23.6 2.29 54 0.8 67.71
New Res (NRZ) 6.4 7.3 2.15 15.67 2 17.86
Omega H (OHI) 8.4 11.5 3.29 37.8 2.63 27.88 Y
Oxford Lane (OXLC) 10.13 1.62 10.13 Y
Occidental (OXY) 11.8 8.8 7.51 66.31 3.08 76.74
Pfizer (PFE) 14.1 12.6 2.76 34.9 1.36 37.23
PennyMac-pb (PMT-b) 25 2 25 Y
Procter & Gamble (PG) 21.7 19.1 4.44 84.72 2.79 88.34 I
Brookfield RA (RA) 23.75 2.39 23.8 Y
RD Shell-B (RDS-B) 19.1 12.4 4.55 56.4 3.76 73.48
Sabra H (SBRA) 7.3* 11.9* 2.51 29.97 1.76 18.28 Y
Starbucks (SBUX) 28.4 29.2 2.32 67.72 1.2 60.55 Y
SCANA (SCG) 9.9 14.8 3.03 44.91 40.72 Y
J.M. Smucker (SJM) 16.2 17.8 8.33 148.17 3.18 129.55 Y
Tanger (SKT) 11.9* 17.5* 2.51 43.87 1.42 25.46 Y
Sutherland (SLD) 10.6 10.8 1.57 16.96 1.48 15.2 Y
Southern Co. (SO) 14.9 16.5 2.99 49.38 2.38 44.62 Y
Simon Prop (SPG) 14.7* 18.1* 12.13 220 7.4 164.2 Y
STAG (STAG) 15.2* 14.6* 1.82 26.66 1.43 25.94 Y
STORE (STOR) 15.5* 16.5* 1.74 28.73 1.27 24.8 Y
AT&T (T) 12.7 13.7 2.97 40.56 2.01 37.45 Y
Teekay pb (TGP-b) 24.8 2.125 24.7 Y
Target (TGT) 16.3 14.5 5.27 76.35 2.56 76.3 I
TriplePoint (TPVG) 8 8.9 1.45 12.9 1.44 13.05 I
Uniti (UNIT) 8.1 10.3 2.27 23.37 2.4 16.35 Y
Union Pacific (UNP) 23.8 18 7.75 139.41 2.66 133.6 I
Visa (V) 33.9 25.2 4.09 103.1 0.81 125.22
Valero (VLO) 19.3 10.2 7.11 72.55 3 97.18
Ventas (VTR) 13.5* 15.2* 4.21 63.82 3.16 56.41 Y
Verizon (VZ) 14.5 15.6 3.88 60.42 2.36 54.29 Y
WEC Energy (WEC) 20.3 18.2 3.29 59.85 2.21 64.14
W.P. Carey (WPC) 14.6* 14.1* 4.63 65.28 4.09 65.81 I
Washington Prime (WPG) 4.1* 6.3* 1.56 9.82 1 6.75 I
Exxon (XOM) 23.7 15.9 4.43 70.5 3.14 88.37
Philip Morris (PM) 23.1 17.8 5.33 94.62 4.37 107.49
Duff & Phelps (DNP) 0.78 10.7
Altria (MO) 21.7 18.5 3.58 66.1 2.77 69.91 I
Xcel (XEL) 20.5 16.8 2.45 41.18 1.52 46
MGE Energy (MGEE) 26.9 21.4 2.3 49.19 1.3 60.35
PepsiCo (PEP) 23 19.9 5.64 112.26 3.27 120.9 I
Kraft-Heinz (KHC) 22.1 27 3.92 105.89 2.6 79.67 Y
Mondelez (MDLZ) 20.7 21 2.37 49.86 0.88 44.47 Y
MetLife (MET) 12.2 9.3 4.9 45.67 1.72 54

I then took a look at historic yield which is my GOLD standard in investing.

Some use 52-week lows and high prices, I like to use yield and out further than just 52 weeks. Historic or at least 5 years is the most helpful to me.

The chart below has the following abbreviations:

Curr P/sh = Share price on January 25th, 2018.

Div 2018 = Dividend for 2018 estimated and shown in Fast Graphs “FG”.

est Y18 = Estimated dividend yield using that estimated dividend for the year 2018.

HxY = Historic Yield over about 10 years, the highest yield I could calculate using “FG” figures.

WTB Y = Want To Buy Yield. This is my WTB yield and just mine. You can pick your own using the figures provided and I encourage you do so.

Price WTB = The price the shares would be for the desired yield.

5yr DGR = The 5-year dividend growth rate as shown again from “FG”.

This chart is like GOLD to me and the Rose portfolio.

What follows also shows in BOLD stocks I believe to be a BUY and perhaps the price I might pay.

In italics are those that are close to a buy and tempting to buy. I will need to investigate further.

I hope you take the time to do so as well. Remember these are for 2018 and are estimates with no guarantee it will happen.

I don’t want to do all the work here, but the ingredients to make some good decisions are there if you know which stocks you might want to own.

TICKER curr p/sh Div 18 est Y18 Hx Y WTB Y Price WTB 5yr DGR
ABBV 108.3 $2.84 2.62% 3.8 2.8 102 13.7 (3)
ABR 8.56 $0.76 8.88% 9 8.2 12.5 (4)
ADP 120.63 $2.37 1.96% 2.8 2.5 94.8 8
AJX 13.78 $1.24 9.00% 9.2 -9.5 13.5
AMGN 190.08 $5.28 2.78% 3 3- 2.8 176 -188.57 55
AMLP 11.77 $0.84 7.14% 11
AMZA 8.86 $1.32 14.90% 15 8.8
APLE 20 $1.20 6.00% 7.3 7 17.14 0
APO 36.4 $1.56 4.29% 5 31.2 45.8
BA 343.11 $6.25 1.82% 2.8 2.5 250 22.2
BDX 242.35 $3.24 1.34% 2.3 1.8 180 10.2
BMY 63.52 $1.61 2.53% 4.2 3.5 46 3
BUD 113.68 $3.85 3.39% 3.7 3.5 110
BXMT 31.91 $2.48 7.77% 8 – 8.5 31 -28.8 0
CAH 73.99 $1.85 2.50% 3.3 2.8 66 15.6
CELG 104.39 $0.00 0.00% 100 0
CHMI 17.62 $1.96 11.12% 17.25
CIM-b 25.72 $2.00 7.78% 8 8 25 0
CL 77.31 $1.68 2.17% 2.5 2.5 67.2 6.4
CMI 189.4 $4.32 2.28% 4 2.5 -2 172.8 -216 25
CORR 37.88 $3.00 8.00% 9.5 8.5 35.3
CSCO 41.9 $1.25 2.98% 3.5 3.2 39.1 41.2 (4)
CVA 16.45 $1.00 6.08% 8 7 14.3
CVS 81.58 $2.30 2.82% 3 2.8 82 27.6
CVX 130.65 $4.42 3.38% 4.6 4 110 7
D 76.69 $3.15 4.11% 4.1 4 78.75 7.4
DEO 144.93 $3.71 2.56% 3.1 125
DLR 111.41 $3.96 3.55% 6.4 5 79 5.2
FSIC 7.7 $0.76 9.87% 10 7.6
GAIN 11.06 $0.89 8.05% 11.7 10 8.9
GIS 60.14 $2.00 3.33% 3.5 3.5 57.2 9.8
GPC 106.31 $2.76 2.60% 3.2 3 92 8
HD 205.37 $4.00 1.95% 2.6 2 200 21
HSY 111.23 $2.76 2.48% 2.9 2.7 102 11.8
IBM 165.47 $6.27 3.79% 4.7 4 156.75 12.4
INTC 45.3 $1.12 2.47% 3.75 3 37.33 5.8
JNJ 144.4 $3.60 2.47% 3.6 2.75 131 6.8
KIM 16.19 $1.12 6.92% 7 6.5 17.23 7.4
KMB 123.44 $4.07 3.30% 3.8 3.5 116.25 5.6
KO 47.84 $1.57 3.28% 3.5 3.4 46.18 8.4
LMT 334.72 $8.20 2.45% 4 2.5 328 16
LNT 40.39 $1.34 3.32% 4.3 3.5 38.29 6.8
MA 168.59 $1.00 0.59% 0.8 0.7 143 73
MCD 175.66 $4.07 2.32% 3.5 2.5 163 7.4
MDT 86.82 $1.84 2.12% 2.5 2.5 -2 73.6 -92 11.4
MMM 252.36 $5.44 2.16% 3 2.5 -2 218 -272 15.6
MRCC 14.14 $1.40 9.90% 11.1 10.5 13.33
NEWT 17.84 $1.69 9.47% 12.3 10 16.9
NGL-b 24.76 $2.25 9.09% 9 9.2 24.5 0
NKE 67.71 $0.80 1.18% 1.4 1.2 66.67 15.8
NRZ 17.86 $2.00 11.20% 14.4 12 16.66 32 (3)
OHI 27.88 $2.63 9.43% 9.8 9 29.22 8.8
OXLC 10.13 $1.62 15.99% 17 16 10.13 3.2
OXY 76.74 $3.08 4.01% 4.4 4 77 10.6
PFE 37.23 $1.36 3.65% 4.1 4 34 8.4
PMT-b 25 $2.00 8.00% 8 8 25 0
PG 88.34 $2.79 3.16% 3.5 3.5 79.7 5
RA 23.8 $2.39 10.04% 10.3 10 23.8 0
RDS.B 73.48 $3.76 5.12% 8.2 6 62.67 0
SBRA 18.28 $1.76 9.63% 9.9 9.5 18.5 12.4
SBUX 60.55 $1.20 1.98% 2 2 60 24.2
SCG 40.72 $1.75 4.30% 6.2 4 43.75 0
SJM 129.55 $3.18 2.45% 3 2.5 127 9.8
SKT 25.46 $1.42 5.58% 5.8 5.5 25.82 10.4
SLD 15.2 $1.48 9.74% 10 10 14.8
SO 44.62 $2.38 5.33% 5.4 5.2 45.77 3.4
SPG 164.2 $7.40 4.51% 4.8 4.8 154.18 14.4
STAG 25.94 $1.43 5.51% 6 6 23.84 15
STOR 24.8 $1.27 5.12% 5.7 5.5 23.1 8 (1)
T 37.45 $2.01 5.37% 6 5.6 35.9 2
TGP-b 24.7 $2.00 8.10% 8.2 8.1 24.6 0
TGT 76.3 $2.56 3.36% 4.6 4 64 21
TPVG 13.05 $1.44 11.03% 12 11.5 12.52 0
UNIT 16.35 $2.40 14.68% 18 16 15 0
UNP 133.6 $2.66 1.99% 2.8 2.5 106.4 18.8
V 125.22 $0.81 0.65% 0.8 0.8 102 23
VLO 97.18 $3.00 3.09% 4.1 3.5 85.71 55
VTR 56.41 $3.16 5.60% 6.3 5.5 57.45 5.4
VZ 54.29 $2.36 4.35% 5.4 4.5 52.45 2.6
WEC 64.14 $2.21 3.45% 3.5 3.5 63.14 14
WPC 65.81 $4.09 6.21% 7.7 6.4 63.9 13.4
WPG 6.75 $1.00 14.81% 14.8 15 6.66 0
XOM 88.37 $3.14 3.55% 4 4 78.5 10.2
PM 107.49 $4.37 4.07% 4.8 4.5 97.11 7.8
DNP 10.7 $0.78 7.29% 8.7 7.8 10 0
MO 69.91 $2.89 3.96% 5.4 4.5 64.22 8.2
XEL 46 $1.52 3.30% 4.2 4 38 5.8
MGEE 60.35 $1.30 2.15% 4.1 3.5 37.14 3.6
PEP 120.9 $3.27 2.70% 3.1 3 109 7.8
KHC 79.67 $2.60 3.26% 3.3 3.5 74.28
MDLZ 44.47 $0.90 1.98% 3.9 2.5 36 10 (3)
MET 54 $1.72 3.19% 3.3 3 57.33 17

I would not have thought of buying LMT today at $338, if I had not done this chart.

I decided the dividend growth rate of 16 and 2.5% dividend yield was satisfactory.

Comparing the 2.5% to BA the price for it is not even close.

I recently trimmed some BA shares and have now replaced many with LMT.

Below is its Fast Graph for 5 years and the 2 years of estimates.

Yes, it is overpriced, but I do like the chart.

CONCLUSION:

Examine the P/E chart and look for overlaps with historic yield, there are many, and too many for me to mention choices for you to continue your due diligence.

Many are REITs, preferred shares and utilities.

The utilities Dominion and Southern stand out as buys right now. WEC and LNT are coming into view for me as well, but just not yet.

Many retail equity REITs are on the buy list. I wanted more KIM and it is now yielding 7%.

I bought some KIM for $16.50 (only 6.8% yield) earlier in the week and today sold a PUT for a strike price of $17.50. I got paid a premium of $2.17 for each share. The option ends July 2018. This gives me the shares, if I am successful, for $15.33 (17.50 -2.17) and yield of 7.3%, as the dividend on KIM is $1.12. I will earn for the 6 months of the option ~ 25% on the cash being frozen in the account. If I don’t get the shares, the cash is released. If I do get the shares, they are bought and paid for. I get to keep the premium of ~ $217 (less fees) no matter what happens. There are many ways to buy stock or just get paid to try to buy it.

Please know the Rose Portfolio generally yields about 4%.

I did not beat SPY last year for total return, see my last article here.

The portfolio is diversified and real estate sector has been a huge price drag on the portfolio.

Thank goodness stocks like Boeing and others have held up the total return. But if you collect dividends, then none of that matters.

Have a plan and buy at a fair value, and if you can get good reward with knowing the risks, enjoy!!

Happy Investing.

Disclosure: I am/we are long LMT. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Long all 91 or so stocks in the article.