Natural Gas Storage Figures For This Week

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Includes: BOIL, DCNG, DGAZ, KOLD, UGAZ, UNG, UNL
by: HFIR Energy
Summary

We expect a -179 Bcf change in the storage report for the week ended Feb. 9.

A storage report of -179 Bcf would be compared to -120 Bcf last year and -154 Bcf for the five-year average.

There are signs developing for a potential weather flip, but we need to see consistency in the models first before we entertain another DGAZ short position.

Welcome to the Natural Gas Storage Forecast Edition of Natural Gas Daily!

We expect a -179 Bcf change in the storage report for the week ended Feb. 9. A storage report of -179 Bcf would be compared to -120 Bcf last year and -154 Bcf for the five-year average.

Source: ICE

We revised higher our estimate from last Friday by 8 Bcf.

Looking at natural gas prices today, the weather outlook overnight started to show potential signs of cold weather in the Northeast at the end of February. To illustrate what we are talking about, here are two tweets from Commodity Wx Group:

And...

The second tweet is the more important one. The first tweet, CFS model, basically tells you what March would look like if Greenland and Alaska show strong ridging (red) patterns.

The second tweet is basically showing you what would happen if the ridging in Greenland intensified.

For natural gas bulls, the ridging in Greenland is especially crucial to the outlook at the end of February right now because if the subsequent weather models confirm the ridging in Greenland is indeed intensifying, it means the East Coast will see colder/bullish weather at the start of March.

In our view, what's lacking for the bulls right now is a bullish weather outlook, and the previous two weeks have just been dismal. The 11-15 day outlooks repeatedly showed warmer and warmer forecasts leading to sub-par HDDs. Now? There are finally signs showing up for a potential flip.

We will be watching today's weather forecast very closely.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.