Welcome to the Natural Gas Storage Forecast Edition of Natural Gas Daily!
We expect a -179 Bcf change in the storage report for the week ended Feb. 9. A storage report of -179 Bcf would be compared to -120 Bcf last year and -154 Bcf for the five-year average.
We revised higher our estimate from last Friday by 8 Bcf.
Looking at natural gas prices today, the weather outlook overnight started to show potential signs of cold weather in the Northeast at the end of February. To illustrate what we are talking about, here are two tweets from Commodity Wx Group:
The second tweet is the more important one. The first tweet, CFS model, basically tells you what March would look like if Greenland and Alaska show strong ridging (red) patterns.
The second tweet is basically showing you what would happen if the ridging in Greenland intensified.
For natural gas bulls, the ridging in Greenland is especially crucial to the outlook at the end of February right now because if the subsequent weather models confirm the ridging in Greenland is indeed intensifying, it means the East Coast will see colder/bullish weather at the start of March.
In our view, what's lacking for the bulls right now is a bullish weather outlook, and the previous two weeks have just been dismal. The 11-15 day outlooks repeatedly showed warmer and warmer forecasts leading to sub-par HDDs. Now? There are finally signs showing up for a potential flip.
We will be watching today's weather forecast very closely.
HFI Research Natural Gas
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