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My Current View Of The S&P 500 Index - March 2018

Mar. 01, 2018 10:01 AM ETAGG, EFA, IWM, SPY10 Comments
Walter Zelezniak Jr profile picture
Walter Zelezniak Jr


  • February saw a correction in all of the indices I follow.
  • Defensive bonds even lost money.
  • Equity indices remain in bullish alignment.

The long sought after correction finally came, or it at least began. All of the indices that I monitor corrected in February. It is fair to say that those indices rebounded from their lows during the month as well, but they all closed lower for the month. The market, as measured by the S&P 500 index, closed 3.89% lower in February. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) lost 3.64% for the month. As for my pension plan assets, I lost money in February. Consequently, my first investment goal, preservation of capital, was not achieved. Unfortunately, I did not beat the returns of the S&P 500 index as measured by SPY. So neither of my investment objectives were met for the month of February. Table 1 below shows my return for the month and Table 2 below shows my returns for the past 12 months.

Table 1 - Investment Returns for February

Table 2 - Investment Returns Last 12 Months

To review the purpose of this series of articles, my retirement account only allows me to buy the following four ETFs: iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG), SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY, iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), and iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA). I can also have my money in cash. The question is how to decide where and when to allocate money to these various ETFs.

I use my moving average crossover system combined with relative strength charts to determine how to allocate my pension plan assets. My moving average crossover system uses the 6 month and the 10 month exponential moving averages to identify which of the four ETFs are in a position to be bought. If the 6 month moving average is above the 10 month moving average then the ETF is a buy. I call this setup being in

This article was written by

Walter Zelezniak Jr profile picture
As an individual investor nearing retirement I am trying to build my financial assets in order to have a fulfilling retirement. I am interested in trading both long and short; or at least using inverse ETFs, to take advantage of market declines. Having long term and short term trading strategies, proper execution of my trading plan, and absolute investing results are my goals. I see my articles as a way to keep me focused on developing winning trades. I also expect to learn much from the feedback that is provided in the comments section.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long SPY, IWM, EFA. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (10)

Good piece but here a question to reflect upon; Is it so wise in this market to have 0% cash ? Unless I misread your positions printed , How can one be 100% bullish in this market ?
The article mentioned a cash position was an option, yet 0$ are allocated to this position. It helps the $ cost average so the slaughter that’s about to unfold is manageable.
Walter Zelezniak Jr profile picture
W Corbett,

I am 100% invested because my moving average cross over system is bullish. I will go into cash when my moving average cross over system goes into bearish alignment. A question I would ask you is when would you have gone into cash? Thanks for reading my article and posting a comment.

Excellent article. Don’t publish more like this, these buy and hold until I die guys will catch on
Walter Zelezniak Jr profile picture
blanco bill,

Thank you for reading and posting a comment.

Thanks Walt.
Walter Zelezniak Jr profile picture

You're welcome.

kurlancheek profile picture
Always enjoy your view. Thank you.
Walter Zelezniak Jr profile picture

Thank you.

Good piece. That dip we just went through was just a warning of the 49-50 percent normal correction that is overdue. It also illustrated the fear out the market is on a knife edge. When the real panic comes as they ALWAYS do not the vast amount of cash inflow chasing gains or the Feds talk or the PPT will stop it until equilibrium is reestablished. Those people who are protected by either being in cash now or covered by protective Shorts/puts will have some very nice entry points for the next ride up. Dont be a long, buy and hold bagholder. Play this move that is coming with the smart money. Check the level of shorts now on the SPY. That will tell you all you need to know about what the big money is doing. Its at a record high.
Walter Zelezniak Jr profile picture

Thanks for reading and posting a comment.

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iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
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