- We anticipate a storage draw of -70 Bcf.
- If the EIA does report a storage report of -70 Bcf, it will be compared with -57 Bcf last year and -129 Bcf for the five-year average.
- The big fundamental news this week was that Lower 48 production averaged an all-time high of ~78.4 Bcf/d, and LNG exports reached ~4 Bcf/d.
Welcome to the natural gas storage forecast edition of Natural Gas Daily!
The EIA reported a -78 Bcf change yesterday, which was 6 Bcf lower than our forecast of -84 Bcf. Be sure to read our week of Feb. 23 storage report here. For the week of March 2, we expect a storage draw of 70 Bcf.
On a fundamental supply and demand basis, below is how each fundamental factor fared vs. the prior week:
On the supply side, Lower 48 production recorded the highest weekly average since we started tracking production. The ~78.4 Bcf/d average Lower 48 production this week puts the market growth YTD at ~1.1 Bcf/d. Canadian gas net imports mildly increased as well week over week, and total gas supplies were up ~0.4 Bcf/d week over week.
On the demand side, residential/commercial (heating demand) was lower week over week, but LNG exports came in at ~1.3 Bcf/d higher week over week. Cove Point LNG is now running at maximum capacity with LNG exports sitting at ~4 Bcf/d. In total, we see this week's implied balance being looser than last week's.
If the EIA does report a storage report of -70 Bcf, it will be compared with -57 Bcf last year and -129 Bcf for the five-year average.
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