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When Will Nvidia's New GPUs Arrive?


  • Probably not in time for Nvidia's GPU Technology Conference.
  • Nvidia maximizes profit at the expense of market share.
  • Jon Peddie gets it wrong on crypto GPU sales.
  • Revisiting the crypto GPU market split.

Rethink Technology business briefs for March 2, 2018.

Nvidia's GTC page, source: Nvidia.

Nvidia's (NASDAQ:NVDA) GPU (Graphics Processing Unit) Technology Conference is coming up later this month, on March 26. GTC has usually been the occasion to announce new GPU architectures, even if new products are months away. There has been much speculation that Nvidia would unveil a successor to Pascal, the current generation of GPUs used in Nvidia's consumer products.

The latest and perhaps most authoritative report comes from Tom's Hardware. Igor Wallassek reports that "nothing concrete" is likely to be revealed. This is unfortunately consistent with what CEO Jensen Huang stated at the fiscal 2018 Q4 conference call on February 8:

...we haven't announced anything for April or July. And so the best way to think about that is, Pascal is the best gaming platform on the planet... we expect Pascal to continue to be world's best gaming platform for the foreseeable future.

One might wonder just how long the "foreseeable future" is, but it was clear that the rollout of a new consumer graphics architecture wasn't imminent. The Tom's report left open the possibility that next-generation cards might be unveiled sometime in mid summer.

The report also indicated a continued divergence between datacenter/professional and consumer cards, with Ampere being the successor to Volta and Turing the successor to Pascal. If true, the nomenclature is somewhat ironic given Turing's interest in artificial intelligence.

I've been expecting this divergence as a necessary optimization of the GPU architecture for machine learning applications in order to fend off challenges from alternatives such as ASICs and competing GPUs.

Nvidia maximizes profit at the expense of market share

Delaying a new architecture rollout makes sense in terms of maximizing profit on the existing Pascal platform, given the lack of supply/demand balance. During the Q4 call, Nvidia

Nvidia is part of the Rethink Technology Portfolio and is rated a buy. Nvidia was the total return leader in the first year of the Portfolio with a 140% total return (price appreciation + dividends). Overall, the Portfolio provided a 39.2% total return in the first year.

Consider subscribing to the Rethink Technology service before March 12, when the price will increase 20%. Subscribing before March 12 permanently locks in the lowest price regardless of future price increases, which will probably happen on an annual basis.

This article was written by

Mark Hibben profile picture
Balanced, expert investing strategies from a technologist's perspective
Mark has a masters in Electrical Engineering from USC, is an independent iOS developer, and blogs about technology trends and companies, the focus of his investments.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long NVDA. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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