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Too Much Risk In This Market - Sven Carlin's Idea Of The Month

Sven Carlin profile picture
Sven Carlin


  • We have extended our partnership with Cheddar TV to produce a Seeking Alpha "Idea of the Month" segment.
  • SA author Sven Carlin continues the series with his idea of the month: invest in commodities, hard assets, and cash for the time being.
  • Lots of market volatility, but now is definitely not the time to buy as the market is underestimating risk. After a nine-year bull market, take your profits.

This article was written by

Sven Carlin profile picture
Passionate about value investing! Education: PhD - A Real Value Risk Estimation Model for an Emerging Market Experience: Investment manager at Let it grow investments, Netherlands Assistant professor at the University of applied sciences Amsterdam, Netherlands Data researcher at Bloomberg, London UK

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Comments (14)

Interest rates are still low...too low to go into treasuries for me. I'm sticking to big blue chips like T, XOM, PFE that pay good dividends. If the market goes down and stays down, just collect the dividends and wait for your stock to go higher.
Tjsheamax profile picture
Thank You. This is a really tough market to be in. The risk is pretty high.
Kingfisher1978 profile picture
Thans you for sharing you view on the market.
I also like you own channel.

Sven Carlin profile picture
Thanks Jelle!
Tjsheamax profile picture
“Take your profit's & enjoy your life, down side to great “ Upside maybe %10, %2 dividend yield compared to a down side of % 50, buy commodities , hard assets and cash ? You really can’t say Sell any more eloquently. Gave myself a pretty good haircut Tuesday and bought some more physical Gold. Blackrock has a $2.2 billion position in the GLD. Followed by Bank of America @ $911 Million. This market is really nuts. Been waiting for this market to crash for a long time. How long should we be on the sidelines ? Don't get too much information from Main Stream Media. What do you think of this video ?
Sven Carlin profile picture
Fundamentals help there, when the earnings yield gives you a satisfying rate of return for your financial goals, you buy in.
make it stop profile picture
I favor John Paul Tudor's approach in this environment that looks ready for debt deflation after some more inflation at cycle peak:

hard assets + plenty of cash
Correct, MIS....I like agricultural commodities and ultra short Treasurys right now....
Tjsheamax profile picture
I think that taking your money out of the market for now, waiting for a correction, then buying them back @ discount is one strategy. But how much of a correction do you think and when. People have been saying this for a long time. Buy Gold ?
Good presentation. During a market crash, I do not believe that commodity oriented stocks will do well, as a general stampede out of the market will force funds to sell anything and everything with a bid in order to meet fund redemptions. Even a rise in gold and silver bullion prices could happen and yet see a fall in PM stocks b/c of redemptions.

I wonder about US treasuries. Should a market panic ensue, flight to safety would indicate that money fleeing the market has to go somewhere and treasuries have always been safe due to the fact that the US gov't can always print to repay. The two questions are whether the dollar falls or not during the next disruption and what happens to interest rates? A melt up in interest rates would kill the bond markets, including the US treasury bond market.

Conclusion: cash and physical bullion in hand seem to be the safest bets. Possibly ETF's that have title to bullion like GLD and SLV might do well.
Excellent job. Man, you look great. :-)
Andu Potorac profile picture
Be a bit more relaxed man. You're too stick. :)
As a frequent Sven follower, I can attest that he is much more exuberant and relaxed in his self-produced videos. He was obviously uptight from being subjected to independent interviewers. BTW, Carlin ranks as one of the top five SA commentators, IMHO. Just sayin'...
Where do you see the ranking list for this?
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