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Amgen And Arrowhead Potential Announcement Coming Soon

Trent Welsh profile picture
Trent Welsh


  • Slide from latest AsiaTIDES conference gives information not yet available on Arrowhead's website.
  • Milestone payment might substantially shore up Arrowhead's cash cushion.
  • Arrowhead's fate is now tied to Amgen collaboration deals as much as its own pipeline.

Arrowhead Pharmaceutical's (NASDAQ:ARWR) latest presentation at the AsiaTIDES conference from February 27 to March 1, 2018 revealed information currently not yet updated on the company's official webpage. One slide in particular might foretell an incoming milestone payment from Amgen Inc. (AMGN) that could be a great potential positive catalyst for the stock price in the near term. A cash infusion, along with a share offering earlier in January, should help to solidify the company's pipeline development well into 2019 as at this point, the company is as reliant on Amgen's collaborative progressions as its own.

Here's a slide from Arrowhead's J.P. Morgan healthcare conference presentation in early January 2018, and what is currently presented on the company's webpage.

Slide from J.P. Morgan Presentation and Currently on Webpage

Just recently, Arrowhead had another presentation (AsiaTIDES pdf file) at the AsiaTIDES conference in Japan which included a new pipeline slide that is very interesting compared to one just presented at the beginning of the year and what's now officially on the company's webpage. Slide 20 originally had the words "CONFIDENTIAL" printed at the bottom last Friday night, which was the only slide among the presentation marked in that way. What's interesting is that Arrowhead removed the pdf file last Friday night, and has put the file up again by the end of the weekend with the words "CONFIDENTIAL" removed from the bottom of the slide. Here's what the new slide shows from their pdf file, which is causing me to get sweaty palms.

Slide From AsiaTIDES Presentation

First, ARO-AAT and ARO-HBV have changed from CTA filed Q4 2017 to FIH planned Q1 2018. These developments in themselves are great catalysts for the company moving from its clinical trial applications to its first in humans trials this quarter for each of these pipeline candidates. The

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Trent Welsh profile picture
B.S. Psychology University of Missouri-Columbia MBA University of Missouri-Columbia Full time investor looking to capitalize on market overreactions and looking for value where others see nothing but wreckage. Long term buys and short term trades to build wealth.Investing Better Than A Money Manager: The Rise Of Retail Investing - By Trent WelshI have an investing book with the title above on Amazon written for beginning retail investors looking to set up a self-directed portfolio with their IRA's, 401k's, or other retirement or trading accounts. It details how to pick and choose stocks amidst the different sectors and how to figure out how much in each sector an investor should have to help achieve diversification.Please take a look at it and let me know your thoughts. Thanks and Best of luck to all :).

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long ARWR. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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Comments (21)

User 63931 profile picture

I am surprised that there was no pull back in the stock when there was no announcement. I'm having trouble believing that this recent move up is attributed to the announcement that the dosing started on their first program. I'm fearful that short crowd will take a run at ARWR with no catalysts for a while.

Trent Welsh profile picture
Yea, I'm a little surprised there hasn't been a move down yet either but volume is regular and it tends to gain a few penny's a day more than days where it loses a few. Maybe some institutions buying in again very slowly but enough to uphold price? Maybe fear that Amgen announcement or another random presentation slide could come any time with a 25% spike in price possible. Don't think lung mid year analyst day would be that scary means plenty of notice and time to get out before then. I keep going back and forth on trimming down my oversized position but have yet to pull the trigger. Thinking I will just ride out the up's and downs until lung day and/or Amgen announcement hit to take some profits. Hard to say what will happen near term but surprised it is holding up so well.
Trent Welsh profile picture
Barclays. Lung - analyst meeting by mid-year which hopefully will be a big deal means this could be a massive franchise for the company by itself. Amgen in clinical trials by end of the year with candidate(s) which doesn't help much. Guess that announcement will come as a surprise sometime over the next 9 months. Wish they would announce it and get it going sooner rather than later but will see. Have to be patient. Best of luck to all.
liegh aulper profile picture
ARWR announces dosing of 1st program today
User 63931 profile picture

Thanks for the series of articles on Arrowhead!

In the September 2016 announcement it states: “Under the terms of the agreements taken together, Arrowhead will receive $35 million in upfront payments; $21.5 million in the form of an equity investment by Amgen in Arrowhead common stock; and up to $617 million in option payments, and development, regulatory and sales milestone payments.”

Have details of specific milestones payments been released since then? It appears from the Slide from AsiaTIDES Presentation that AMGN has crossed Pre-IND. Is that a milestone that generates a milestone payment? Do you know which successful milestones require a milestone payment? Thanks in advance for answering my questions.

Trent Welsh profile picture
Arrowhead hasn't received any milestone payments yet that I am aware of and they almost always come out with public announcements for these things when they happen. That is why the slide is so interesting as this step would almost certainly trigger a milestone payment. Milestone payments and the actual contracts are confidential so we don't know for sure what triggers stuff, but events like the slide show are common events for a milestone payments. However, it is only speculation until the announcement comes out. Otherwise, maybe its Arrowhead's wishful thinking, where they plan to be in a year, shrug. Also, be aware that Arrowhead is attending the Barclays Global Healthcare Conference early this coming week so might be an opportune time to make an announcement with a new set of slides. I know I will be following the conference with interest and have already made my bets on a coming announcement. Would love the announcement coming sooner rather than later but only speculation until that happens. Finally, no idea what all the milestone payments are means these are part of a confidential contract between Amgen and Arrowhead. Best of luck :).
User 63931 profile picture
The Barclay presentation just ended and Chris Anzalone did not make any announcement concerning milestone payments from Amgen. His comment concerning the collaboration was that things are going well.
Thanks for the update.
Larry Monkelban profile picture
An excellent read... long time follower of Arrowhead.
And it has been an interesting and at times rough ride
Nice article and great sleuth work. Sadly, we do not gamble with OPM. But good luck to you!

william profile picture
The presentations was excellent and there was a delay in the stock popping. The real key is that arwr has something we just do not know how the movie ends. ARWR is a bio tech speculation and the reward can and could be explosive on the upside or could be another bust like 1 1/2 years ago. The big play is that AMGN pays up and buys the cmpy or the cash infusion creates
a big pop because money talks in bio techs. If AMGN puts up the big coin one could assume they know and or see something that is very valuation. It is like a lawyer does not ask the question unless he knows the answer. You want the big pop you must be in the game.
http://bit.ly/bEh6wm We have followed arwr for a few years and it remains a strong buy
Aro-Lung has to be idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis or even better non small lung cancer as they have another cancer drug in renal cell carcinoma.
ARWR RNAi platform just like ALNY , all rely on GalNAC to deliver RNAi into liver while ARWR used peptide scaffolding to connect RNAi and GalNAC. If you deeply dig into ALNY-AAT and ALNY-HBV all documents and clinical result, You would find efficacy of their RNAi tech is almost the same level. It is hard to say which is super . However, ALNY withdraw their two projects ... For AAT , Asymptomatic, reversible, dose-dependent increase in hepatic transaminase observed. for AAT liver pts , I believe ALNY scientists concludes that liver illed pts just cannot accept this side effect ... I do not know how it is to ARWR ????

For HBV , ARWR had treated 9 or some Garrilas but we never heard ARWR cure at least one of Garrila after more than two years up to today.

ARWR leader was notorious for promotion just be cautious for pumping
Actually you missed the true big story of ARWR, ARO-LUNG is going to be earth shattering.
Trent Welsh profile picture
A lot of their stuff is very interesting and ARO-LUNG does look very promising with no partner as of now, so tons of upside. Will be great to see how things develop and what's moving the needle a couple years from now. Best of luck and really hope ARWR works out long term.
Possible that Amgen just skips the progress payment(s)- and just buys the whole company; before it gains any more value?
Trent Welsh profile picture
Highly unlikely because ARWR's poison pill provision it enacted in like March of 2017 I think making it super expensive for anyone to come in and buy them out. They would have to love the science so much they would be willing to pay through the nose and then some to acquire the company.
Trent: Excellent detective work and thanks for sharing this with investors. You get the Detective McSmudge award for discovery. Thank you - excellent work.
Breeze Block Capital profile picture
Great article! They raised over $60M gross in equity offering, btw. I have the "confidential" version of page 20 saved as a screen shot in case you want it. I figured it would get changed.
Trent Welsh profile picture
Ohh. Very nice. I would love that. I was too slow to get a picture as I was writing the article
georgekmarshall profile picture
Trent: tell us about ARWR/AMGN's use of TRiM for delivery, and what it could mean for RNAi outside the liver. Excellent rundown, by the way
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