Larry Summers' Explanation For USD Decline
Why has the dollar fallen since January 2017? My answer is an economic turnaround in the rest of the world. Also, the level of the dollar remains rather high. But Larry Summers has a different answer.
Many of us started warning in the 1980s that erratic US fiscal and foreign policy would eventually put an end to American exorbitant privilege - that foreigner investors would finally tire of holding ever-greater quantities of dollars. I renewed the prediction when GWB brought back the twin deficits 15 years ago.
I gave up making such claims after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis produced a global rush to the US safe haven notwithstanding that the sub-prime mortgage crisis had originated in the US.
But Summers makes a case in Monday's FT that Trump's erratic fiscal and foreign policies are finally bringing us to this point: "Currency Markets Send a Warning on the US Economy." It is well-argued, as always. But if investors were beginning to doubt the solidity of US assets, I might have expected to see more upward pressure on US interest rates than we have seen.
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