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Oh, Hi March

Mar. 06, 2018 3:00 PM ETAKAOQ, AZN, BLUE, MRNS, PRTK, CLVSQ, TSRO, RHHBY, CDTX16 Comments
Altum Research profile picture
Altum Research


  • We're ending the 1st quarter of 2018!
  • There are some catalysts to come this month.
  • We look at CLVS CDTX ONCE.

Greetings! In like a ... bear, out like a bull?

Data me please!

As we wait for the much anticipated (and highly strenuous) data from Marinus (MRNS) we shouldn't forget that Cidara (CDTX) still has data to come out - reportedly by the end of this month (we previously anticipated much earlier). Cidara's price has behaved much more stably than Marinus, and we see this as a good sign - the market for buyers and sellers is relatively even and nobody is playing games with the stock (intentional or not).

ChartCDTX data by YCharts

Image generated from YCharts

While we're definitely not at the high of 3 months ago, we're not dramatically lower. Again, as per our previous article, we strongly believe Cidara to report good data here. That modification on their drug is giving us all the good and none of the bad. The real question, in my mind, is not efficacy or safety, but the marketability - will a small company such as Cidara be able to market this drug? If not, will someone buy them - and who would? In researching SCYX, we know that fungal infections in frequency are not growing exponentially, but the 'super-bugs' are showing up - increasing the need for non-azole drugs in this sector.

Translation: while we're bullish the upcoming readout, we don't have a proper price target because we can't appropriately quantify the marketability of the drug. However, we know that the value is above and beyond a quite small $136 million mcap. Therefore, we are taking a buy-and-wait approach to CDTX. Overall, antibiotics are hurting, we know this with Paratek (PRTK) and Achaogen (AKAO), but we do believe in the very long term, these are decent investments, especially as doctors bring the urgency from the clinic to the

ChartCLVS data by YCharts

ChartONCE data by YCharts

This article was written by

Altum Research profile picture
We used to write here before joining the capital markets / IB industry. Nothing here is a reflection, view or opinion of our employers.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long CDTX, CLVS, ONCE, MRNS. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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