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8point3: Where Do I Go From Here?

Summary

  • 8point3 is going private meaning capital from shareholders will need to be recycled.
  • Shareholders have three options for when to begin the process of recycling their capital.
  • I present 3 lower risk and 3 higher risk options to recycle your capital into.

The Need for Change

Recent investors in 8point3 Energy Partners LP (NASDAQ:CAFD) were aware that both sponsors were looking to remove the yieldco from their balance sheets and were actively accepting offers to buy out 8point3. on Feb 5th, 8point3 announced it accepted an offer from Capital Dymanics for 12.35 per unit. This caused the share price to drop from $13.81 to $12.14 almost instantly. This sale is expected to be completed by Q2 or Q3 of 2018. 8point3 will continue to issue quarterly dividends at the same level as issued in January until the transaction is finalized.
This leaves shareholders with a few options:
1. Hold onto their shares until the sale finalized - collecting the associated dividends from 8point3.
2. Sell immediately and accept any potential loss up front to recycle capital immediately - forgoing any additional dividends.
3. Waiting to collect Q2 dividend and then selling out of 8point3 to recycle capital.

Investors, who have been loving the consistent dividend and associated increases given by 8point3, will be left looking for other options for their capital to continue to be rewarded, regardless of when they receive their capital back from the options above.

Lower Risk Options

8point3 consistently paid out its dividend close to the 100% of its CAFD. These options for moving on from 8point3 are of the lowest risk, and highest quality stocks.

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP (BIP) presents a unique opportunity to own a piece of a global infrastructure empire. They currently sport just over a 4.5% yield and plans to grow their dividend by 8% this year. The next dividend pays out on march 29th and the ex-div date was 2/28. One drawback for potential investors is that Brookfield Infrastructure Partners issues a K1 for US tax purposes if held in a non-retirement account.

Brookfield

This article was written by

Treading Softly profile picture
3.35K Followers

Treading Softly, aka Scott Kaufman, learned about investing first hand while working at Regions Bank and currently works at the world's largest credit union as a financial analyst. He targets high-yield investments in pursuit of immediate income.

Treading Softly contributes to the investing group High Dividend Opportunities led by Rida Morwa and a team of other top Seeking Alpha income investing analysts. The service focuses on sustainable income through a variety of high yield investments with a targeted safe +9% yield. Features include: model portfolio with buy/sell alerts, preferred and baby bond portfolios for more conservative investors, vibrant and active chat with access to the service’s leaders, dividend and portfolio trackers, and regular market updates. The service philosophy focuses on community, education, and the belief that nobody should invest alone. Learn More.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long UNIT, CAFD, BIP, BEP, PEGI, PBFX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (69)

Special Situations and Arbs profile picture
The way I see it is the 12.35 is the tender which is set in stone.....You tender you get 12.35.....simple enough.

The cash generated is separate. That cash will go toward the dividends.
tensei profile picture
seems like someone needs to read the merger doc
cluebert profile picture
OK! I've sold my puts and bought some shares on the dip today. Fingers crossed it's a temporary dip.

You think this is slam dunk? No chance the buyer bails?
E
I can't find the ex-div date for this quarter. FWIW, here are the previous dates:
2017-12-29 Ex-Dividend Date for Cash Dividend
2017-10-02 Ex-Dividend Date for Cash Dividend
2017-07-03 Ex-Dividend Date for Cash Dividend
2017-03-31 Ex-Dividend Date for Cash Dividend
The chart looks like CAFD is trading flat since the news. If it trades flat through the ex-div date, I am not going to worry about quebert's odd theory.
Robin Hewitt profile picture
I should probably just shut up. If everyone becomes convinced the tender price will be reduced by the dividend payments, I might soon have an arbitrage opportunity to buy CAFD at guaranteed 9% APR.
tensei profile picture
well the math is pretty set in stone, not sure what the debate is about

the cash offer price is known ($12.35)
the dividends are known (28.02 cents)
the cash accretion is known (an additional amount that is issued and outstanding immediately prior to the OpCo Merger 1 Effective Time equal to (i) (A) if the Closing occurs on or prior to May 31, 2018, (1) $0.135, plus (2) the product of (x) the number of days from and including March 1, 2018 through and including the Closing Date multiplied by (y) $0.0021, or (B) if Closing occurs after May 31, 2018, (1) $0.3282, plus (2) the product of (x) the number of days from and including June 1, 2018 through and including the Closing Date multiplied by (y) $0.0045, minus (ii) any distributions paid or, if the applicable record date has occurred prior to the OpCo Merger 2 Effective Time, declared by OpCo after January 12, 2018 (including, for the avoidance of doubt, any Unpaid OpCo Distribution);
tensei profile picture
the biggest risk - is that the deal doesn't go through, and the company has like two really large term loans that are due in a year 2020

they will have to refinance at potentially higher interest rates, reducing the run rate cafd
cluebert profile picture
"minus (ii) any distributions paid "
cluebert profile picture
Yes, both Effen & the author of this article don't seem to understand the buyout out price. It is a little confusing and it took me a couple tries to figure it out, but now it's clear.

12.35 - paid dividends + cash generated = total final value of shares held now.

So when CAFD goes ex-dividend, the trading share price will drop by that amount. Do not expect for it to go back up. Why would you expect that? The buyout price does not include paid dividends.

As for he cash generated, it is added on.

However, what I don't know is what is the ratio of cash generated to dividends paid. If it is about the same, then one can expect 12.35 in total by the end if holding now.

If cash generated is less than dividends paid, then final paid value from here is < 12.35

If cash generated is > dividends, then final price is > 12.35

If the final value is > 12.35... this would not make sense as the final buyer wants to keep the price down & and so would be incentivized to speed up the deal.
Treading Softly profile picture
Thanks for clarifying! Happy Investing!
tensei profile picture
no that is false, it is $12.35 per share + dividends

The expected cash generated effectively equals the dividend according to the merger doc

----------------------...
Merger Doc

“OpCo Merger Consideration” means, with respect to each OpCo Unit, an amount in cash equal to the sum of:
(a) $12.35; plus
(b) an additional amount that is issued and outstanding immediately prior to the OpCo Merger 1 Effective Time equal to (i) (A) if the Closing occurs on or prior to May 31, 2018, (1) $0.135, plus (2) the product of (x) the number of days from and including March 1, 2018 through and including the Closing Date multiplied by (y) $0.0021, or (B) if Closing occurs after May 31, 2018, (1) $0.3282, plus (2) the product of (x) the number of days from and including June 1, 2018 through and including the Closing Date multiplied by (y) $0.0045, minus (ii) any distributions paid or, if the applicable record date has occurred prior to the OpCo Merger 2 Effective Time, declared by OpCo after January 12, 2018 (including, for the avoidance of doubt, any Unpaid OpCo Distribution); minus
(c) an amount calculated by dividing the OpCo Merger 1 OpCo Distribution by the number of OpCo Units owned by the Sponsor OpCo Owners that are issued and outstanding immediately prior to the OpCo Merger 1 Effective Time.
cluebert profile picture
"minus (ii) any distributions paid" that's what I'm saying!

Not sure about (c), but the word "minus" comes before it.
Tom Incorporated profile picture
PEGI gets my vote – the recent dip gave me the nudge I needed to get in long.
Treading Softly profile picture
I picked up a position in PEGI once it dipped due to their dividend increase freeze also
El.Monje.Ateo profile picture
I note the author is long all stocks covered in the article, minus CVA. Is there a reason you do not own CVA? Just curious.
Treading Softly profile picture
I'm keeping a close eye on CVA but haven't moved capital to it yet, probably will use a section of my CAFD capital into it. It has been my most recently researched company having systematically researched the other prior to it and investing in them.
karlwenn profile picture
I am tempted to buy more CAFD for the arbitrage, If two more dividends are paid ($0.56), then you can pick up $0.76 plus whatever is left if CAFD's coffers in a time span of about 4-6 months. That is a 6% yield for a short time frame.
E
I netted $2.25 a share holding CAFD for four months last year. I bought back in for 5600 shares at $12.16 since the sale was announced. I might buy more if CAFD is near the current price near the ex-dividend date.
kbaba profile picture
Read the slides here

https://seekingalpha.c...

It doesn't work like you said. It's $12.35 minus dividends paid but plus cash flow. This total payout, including dividends, is likely to be $12.35 or so if the payout ratio is 100%. Less if it's below 100%
kbaba profile picture
Sounds from the slides you linked that $12.35 isn't set in stone but will be reduced by paid dividends but increased by cash generated. Are these supposed to cancel each other out.
M
kbaba
$12.35 is sell price, plus cashflow until close of transaction minus paid dividends.
kbaba profile picture
THat's what I was trying to say. How predictable is cashflow that will be added to the sell price. We know the other variables
Treading Softly profile picture
Correct, so as long as the dividends are covered by CAFD each quarter it will be 12.35 plus the leftover CAFD for each shareholder.
kbaba profile picture
Sold CAFD awhile ago. Long PEGI, BEP, UNIT and PEGI so... nice choices?

Is CAFD worth buying as an arbitrage to collect some dividend and a 20 cents on closing?
Treading Softly profile picture
I am holding my shares till the CAFD deal closes. I firmly believe their CAFD of current operations will cover the 1-2 additional dividends until it closes. Holders at that time will receive a pro-rated 2nd or 3rd dividend and the $12.35.
kbaba profile picture
That doesn't seem to be what the deal is. The $12.35 is supposed to be reduced by the dividends but increased by cash flow, thus, according to the payout ration, total of dividends plus redemption price ought to still only come out to $12.35 or so, not $12.35 plus dividends
E
kbada, I cannot see how you read the deal this way.

This is $12.35 + CAFD - DIV plus you will have already received DIV, so $12.35 + CAFD

"... the Partnership's Class A shareholders and the ... "Sponsors" ... will receive $12.35 per share or per unit in cash, plus a preset daily amount representing cash expected to be generated from December 1, 2017 through closing less any distributions received after the execution of the Merger Agreement and prior to closing."
D
Option 2. Sold out immediately.
M
Doug
This is from buy high sell low concept.
Sell now for $12.17 if you can vote for $12.35 sell price and get another 1 or 2 dividends.
cluebert profile picture
dividends are deducted.
E
Cuebert, this is just semantics. The company will add CAFD before deducting dividends paid. If the closing is just after an ex-dividend date it is easier to understand the results. If the CAFD rate is the same as the dividend rate, you will add and subtract the same value from $12.35, resulting in a payment of $12.35 at close. However, you will have banked the dividend payments. At least one, and probably two dividend payments will be paid. The dividends will be $0.54 if this closes right after the June dividend becomes payable.
If the deal closes midway through a dividend period, I expect they will do a final payout of $12.35 plus 1.5 months of CAFD (assuming the dividend and CAFD from the earlier quarters cancel out). I don't expect a prorated dividend payment, as the author suggested, but this does not affect my total return.
I am expecting a total return of about $12.90 on my $12.16 cost basis if this closes right after the June dividend becomes payable.
pwnzjoon00b profile picture
I'm pinching my pennies and refuse to pay a commission selling this stock after being punched directly in the nose. When the cash is tendered, I'll retreat to BEP to lick my wounds.
M
Shareholders should refuse the deal to sell at $12.35. Lowest acceptable price for me is $14.
Long CAFD
pwnzjoon00b profile picture
8point3 looked far and wide for a better offer already. I really doubt a better deal is in the cards. Feel free to vote your shares in protest at your leisure, that is exactly what I intend on doing; but, I think if the deal is rejected by the public shareholders it will likely end up spoiling the stock's price even further.
M
After rejection the price will go down as you said and we will maybe even see a dividend cut.
But $12.35 is offer one can not accept.
e
they definitely haven't evaluated ALL options to maximize shareholder value IMO. why can't they (FSLR and co) sell their shares on the open market or issue a public secondary offering to dumb their shares (at around the last market price of $13.8 or with a slight discount)? if they can't sell all their shares at once that way maybe issue an option for existing public shareholders to buy additional shares at the deal price of $12.35. I would definitely buy and Im sure many other shareholders too.
agreed shareholders should vote no
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