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The 2018 Bear Market Is Over... For Now

It's Spring Break

It's that time of the year again as my family and I make our annual pilgrimage to Utah for a few days of snowboarding and skiing. This year should be especially interesting as my wife and daughters have decided to join us "boys" in snowboarding (Hilarity will surely ensue).

There are generally two events that happen every year - somebody forgets their coat, goggles or some other article of clothing needed for skiing, and someone visits the emergency clinic with a minor injury. Last year, it was my son who left his coat at the airport and then broke his collarbone showing off for some "cute" girls (Yes, they are at that age - all hormones, no brain).

Nonetheless, it is always an adventure, but most importantly, given how busy our lives have become, it is a great time for all of us to reconnect as a family and build some terrific memories.

So, since we are packing to leave first thing in the morning, this week's newsletter is going to be a brief market review and positioning update. I will do a full review on my return.

Have a great Spring Break.

As I noted last Tuesday:

"Turning points in the market, if this is one, are extremely difficult to navigate. They are also the juncture where the most investing mistakes are made.

Over the last several weeks, I have been providing constant prodding to clean up portfolios and reduce risks. I also provided guidelines for that process - click here.

For now, it is important to note the 'bullish trend' remains solidly intact and, therefore, we must give the 'benefit of the doubt' to the bulls."

I cannot emphasize that last point enough.

  • Yes, we had rebalanced portfolio risks and raised cash levels.
  • Yes, we

This article was written by

Lance Roberts profile picture

After having been in the investing world for more than 25 years from private banking and investment management to private and venture capital; I have pretty much "been there and done that" at one point or another. I am currently a partner at RIA Advisors in Houston, Texas.

The majority of my time is spent analyzing, researching and writing commentary about investing, investor psychology and macro-views of the markets and the economy. My thoughts are not generally mainstream and are often contrarian in nature but I try an use a common sense approach, clear explanations and my “real world” experience in the process.

I am a managing partner of RIA Pro, a weekly subscriber based-newsletter that is distributed to individual and professional investors nationwide. The newsletter covers economic, political and market topics as they relate to your money and life.

I also write a daily blog which is read by thousands nationwide from individuals to professionals at www.realinvestmentadvice.com.

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Comments (21)

mr charles profile picture
Thks for the Info.. love when one can analyze and advise how and where to allocate funds...even in a Bear Mkt.
IamTheWolf profile picture
Well said Lance, and solid suggestions for those willing to listen. Thanks.
j. hughes profile picture
When you get to my age "-all hormones, no brain" become the "...good old days."
Buyandhold 2012 profile picture
Lance, I never even noticed the 2018 bear market.

I have only had a bear market in four of my stocks; MNK, GE, Frontier and Windstream.

Everything else seems to be holding up okay.

Even Disney stock just rose 70 cents to 104.70 on the strength of that Black Panther movie.

"Wrinkle in Time" however, opened to poor box office. I saw the preview of "Wrinkle in Time."
It looked awful. It was a wonderful book written many decades ago. They should have made a movie when the book first came out with a wonderful director like William Wyler. I do not know if the author of the book is alive or dead. If the author is dead and could see the horrible movie they have made from her wonderful book, she must be rolling over in her grave.

Disney will survive this travesty called "Wrinkle in Time." At least Black Panther is making money.
BigMichael profile picture
Thanks again Lance. A must read for serious investors. Appreciate your continued incites. Hope your holiday is pleasant and wish you the best!
mulligangs profile picture
For those less inclined to believe in technical analysis, Top Down Charts implied in a chart yesterday that the synchronized global expansion may not be as robust as is being peddled. It was based on some economic data from the OECD.

As for technical analysis, whether you want to believe in it or not is up to you. But my defense of it is that every trading desk in the world uses algorithms to make decisions. And every set of algorithms includes technical analysis. It therefore becomes self-fulfilling that stocks will trade in patterns based on technical theories. Supply and demand provide direction up or down.
Gobobo profile picture
A most enjoyable article, thanks!
subaruguy profile picture
I'm long the S&P 500 !!
Volume was low Friday on ^GSPC and ^NDX
Voodoo. Might as well be looking at chicken entrails.
After all of the analysis paralysis in the article, how has any of that helped perform any better compared to the simple buy and hold strategy?
Great article . Let’s make some money
Always enjoy reading your perspective on the market. Ignore the comments from people that don’t understand how technical analysis works and risk management. Thank you for posting your work!!
rrose39 profile picture
Question: You stated "(j)ust for the record, while the short-term outlook is bullish, the long-term market backdrop remains decidedly bearish for equity investors.

My readings of Jeff Miller's and others contributions (notably F&G Trader) indicate the exact opposite of that statement.

Can you explain that discrepancy?
Lance Roberts profile picture
The long-term fundamental backdrop is bearish. The long-term technical backdrop of overbought conditions, extensions, etc. are also very bearish. I.E. - bad stuff happens from these levels.
Wow, that was the shortest bear market in history. All of 1 week
john.fAIrplay profile picture
And only down 10 percent! A new definition of a "Bear Market!"
Lance Roberts profile picture
Exactly, the title of the article was "Sarcastic," which was apparently lost on the trolls.
What bear market? The 100th you called?
and still batting 0 for 100...
I guarantee he'll call at least 3 more - before month's end.
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