The Continued Upward March Of Crude Oil

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Includes: BNO, DBO, DNO, DTO, OIL, OILK, OILX, OLEM, OLO, SCO, SZO, UCO, USL, USO
by: Viking Analytics

Summary

Crude oil is in a clear weekly uptrend; however, I anticipate sideways price action over the next month or so.

Crude maintains a state of backwardation, which tends to be bullish.

The crude oil option Price Magnets are pointing towards a price decline by May.

Introduction

WTI crude oil remains in a very clear weekly uptrend; however, several signals that we follow suggest that crude oil will correct back to the $55/bbl level in the next month or so. If this does occur, it is our expectation that it will continue its upward advance after that.

Here is a summary of some of the indicators that we follow for crude oil and XOP, one of our favorite trading vehicles in the energy space. We currently have a neutral view for the week ahead.

We present our view for crude oil below with a series of annotated charts.

WTI Crude Oil Annotated Charts

The crude oil Price Magnets suggest sideways trading action, with a decline possible before May. If you are interested to learn more about Price magnets, then please click this link.

Source: Viking Analytics

WTI Crude Relative Value

Crude Oil COT Report

The money managers in crude oil tend to be the “dumb money” over a medium-term perspective. When the money managers get overly bullish, then the market can tend to correct. The ratio of long to short positions continues to be elevated. This dynamic can take a while to play out.

Disclaimer and Notes

All charts above were taken from Trading View unless otherwise indicated, and all tables were created by Viking Analytics unless otherwise indicated.

This article was written for information purposes, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All my articles are subject to the disclaimer found here.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.