50 Energy Sector Top-Yield Dividend Prospects For April

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Includes: AWLCF, CAPL, CVRR, DM, ENBL, ET, GLP, GPP, MEYYY, SEP, SNMP, SUN, TCP, TEGP-OLD, TLP, USAC
by: Fredrik Arnold
Summary

Midstream firms, Dominion, Sanchez, & Energy Transfer topped February's broker-vetted Energy Sector gains list, while Awilco Drilling, was tops by yield, as calculated 3/28/18.

Top ten price upsides byPBF, ENBL, SEP, GPP, TLP, CAPL, TEGP, SNMP, ETE, & DM averaged 36.6% per 1-year broker targets.

50 top energy stocks ranged in yield from 6.46% to 17.42%. Top ten, CVRR, GPP, TCP, GLP, CAPL, USAC, SUN, MEYY, SNMP, & AWLCF averaged 13.23% yield.

This sector consists of six industries and the top 50 firms selected by yield for this writing represented all six.

$5k invested in the lowest-priced five March top-yield energy stocks showed 10.94% less net gain than from $5k invested in all ten. The big high-priced stocks came back to lead the energy sector in March.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Projected 37.07% To 59.38% Net Gains Boosting Ten Top Energy Stocks To March 2019

Four of ten top-gaining energy sector stocks, based on analyst 1-year target prices, were also part of the top ten dividend-yielders for the coming year (as tinted in the chart above). Thus, the yield-based forecast for the Energy sector, as graded by the Wall St. wizards, was 40% accurate.

The following probable profit-generating trades were selected by estimated dividends from $1000 invested in each highest yielding stock. That dividend and the aggregate one year analyst median target price, as reported by YCharts, created the 2018-19 data. Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to March 28, 2019 were:

Dominion Energy Midstream (DM) was projected to net $593.81, based on a median target price estimate from thirteen analysts, plus projected annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 4040% more than the market as a whole. (Never seen such a high beta calculation.)

Sanchez Midstream Holdings (SNMP) was projected to net $541.94, based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates from five analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 23% opposite the market as a whole.

Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) was projected to net $497.19, based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates from nineteen analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 87% more than the market as a whole

Tallgrass Energy Group (TEGP-OLD) netted $479.18 based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates by eleven analysts, less broker fees. TA Beta number was not available for TEGP.

CrossAmerica Partners (CAPL) was projected to net $455.42, based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from eight analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 17% more than the market as a whole.

Green Plains Partners (GPP) was projected to net $414.88, based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates from six analysts, less broker fees. A Beta number was not available for GPP.

TransMontaigne Partners (TLP) was projected to net $412.82, based on a median target price estimate from five analysts plus dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 76% less than the market as a whole.

Spectra Energy Partners (SEP) was projected to net $375.11, based on a median target price estimate from eighteen analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 29% less than the market as a whole.

Enable Midstream Partners (ENBL) was projected to net $373.75, triggered by target price estimates from ten analysts, plus projected annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 85% more than the market as a whole.

USA Compression Partners (USAC) was projected to net $370.73, based on target price estimates from eleven analysts, and dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 22% more than the market as a whole.

Average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 45.15% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 382% more than the market as a whole.

Top 50 Energy Stocks By Yield Represented All 6 Energy Sector Industries For March

Yield (dividend / price) results from YCharts March 28 verified by YahooFinance for fifty stocks from all six Energy Sector Industries revealed the actionable conclusions highlighted in this article.

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".

Top 50 March Energy Equities By Yield

Actionable Conclusions (11-20): Yield Metrics Identified 10 Top Energy Equities

Top ten Energy dogs by yield represented five of the six industries in the sector: (1) drilling [1 listed]; (2) midstream [4 listed]; (3) exploration & production [1 listed]; (4) refining & marketing [3 listed]; (5) equipment & services [1 listed]; (6) integrated [0 listed].

First place was taken be the lone drilling concern listed, Awilco Drilling (OTCPK:AWLCF) [1].

In second place, Sanchez Midstream Partners (SNMP) [2], was the first of four midstream representatives listed. The other three midstream firms placed sixth, seventh, through ninth: Global Partners (GLP) [7]; TC Pipelines (TCP) [8];Green Plains Partners (GPP) [9].

One exploration & production firm, placed third, PT Medco Energi International (OTCPK:MEYYY) [3].

Three refining and marketing firms (as listed by YCharts) placed fourth, sixth, and tenth on the yield list: Sunoco (SUN) [4], CrossAmerica Partners (CAPL) [6], and CVR Refining (CVRR) [10].

Finally, a single equipment & services firm placed fifth, USA Compression Partners (USAC) [5]. to complete the top ten March Energy Sector top stocks by yield.

Actionable Conclusions: Ten Energy Stocks (21-30) Showed 28.02% To 53.09% Upsides By March 2019

To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield "dog" metrics, analyst mean price target estimates were more tools to dig out bargains.

Analysts Forecast A 10.94% Disadvantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced Energy Stocks To March, 2019

Ten top energy dogs were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend / price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.

As noted above, top ten Energy dogs selected 3/28/19 showing the highest dividend yields represented five of six industries in their sector.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Predicted 5 Lowest-Priced of the Top Ten Highest-Yield Energy Dogs (31) Delivering 27.27% Vs. (32) 30.62% Net Gains by All Ten by March 2019

$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten Energy kennel by yield was predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 10.94% LESS net gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in each of those ten. The third from the lowest priced Energy top yield equity, Sanchez Midstream Partners (NYSEMKT:SNMP), was projected to deliver the best net gain of 54.19%.

The five lowest-priced top Energy stocks for March 28 were: Awilco Drilling (OTCPK:AWLCF); PT Medco Energi International (OTCPK:MEYYY); Sanchez Midstream Partners (SNMP); CVR Refining (CVRR); Global Partners (GLP), with prices ranging from $4.60 to $15.35.

Five higher-priced Energy stocks for March 28 were: USA Compression Partners (USAC); Green Plains Partners (GPP); CrossAmerica Partners (CAPL); Sunoco (SUN); TC Pipelines (TCP), whose prices ranged from $16.61 to $34.65.

That distinction between the five low-priced dividend stocks and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

See my instablog for specific instructions about how to best apply the dividend dog data featured in this article, this glossary instablog to interpret my abbreviated headings, and this instablog to aid your safe investing. --Fredrik Arnold

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your energy sector dog stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in YahooFinance or YCharts. Dog photo: chagrinfallspetclinic.com

Disclosure: I am/we are long CVI, PTRC. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.