Bitcoin - A Possible Triple By The End Of The Year

Michael Bryant profile picture
Michael Bryant


  • While bitcoin has fallen a lot, it has likely hit the bottom.
  • The many models I provide give different price targets for different times, but the common targets seem to be about $25,000 by the end of the year and about $91,000.
  • We could see a spike to $74,000 by early September, or even a spike to $130,000 by mid-2018, or we could just get $20,000 by mid-year.

A lot has happened to bitcoin since my December 10 article. It seems like bitcoin (BTC-USD) (COIN) (OTC:GBTC) bears got the decline they were waiting for. After surging nearly 1300% in 2017, bitcoin peaked at $19,343 on Sunday, December 17, 2017, and bottomed 69.2% lower at $5,957 early Tuesday, February 6, 2018. It seemed to be making a comeback, surging to $11,480 on March 4, before plunging again to $6,444 on April 1. Is bitcoin a short-term buy now? Why has bitcoin fallen so much? Did the bitcoin bubble pop? Where will bitcoin's price be at the end of this year? I provide updated models and an updated Elliot Wave graph. Further, I look into the value of bitcoin as a currency.

Is bitcoin a short-term buy now?

Yes. Based solely on the 1-year technical graph of NYSE Bitcoin Index (NYXBT), bitcoin looks a great short-term buy with the W%R at -100.00 (extremely oversold and the lowest reading possible) and the RSI at 33.20 (almost oversold). The price is at its 200-day moving average, which could be significant support. The price is also near its lower Bollinger Band, a possible buy signal, and has formed a bullish double bottom.


Why bitcoin has fallen so much, and are fears overdone?

Bearish news of governments possibly banning bitcoin was one of the biggest fears leading up to the cryptocurrencies big plunge. On September 8, bitcoin plunged on news of bans by Chinese exchanges, but that fear was later capped by the government allowing bitcoin to trade over-the-counter. On November 8, India also banned bitcoin as a currency but embraced blockchain technology. Then on December 13, South Korea planned to ban banks from dealing with cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin peaked on December 17. But unless all countries around the world ban

This article was written by

Michael Bryant profile picture
Investor. Mission: Help people make money. Degree: Chemistry from NC State University. Freelance writerFor short-term ideas about big movers, follow my StockTalks. But please note I am not the best short term stock picker. I am 7-0-1 in the long term, but 0-3 in the short term. Recommended authors:Micheal Filloon (oil shale/short term and long term)Brad Thomas (REIT short and long term)Taylor Dart (mainly gold short and long term also swing/trend trader)Ian Bezek (long term trader and new ideas)Over the last 12 years, I am 7-4-1. I was up 130%, 29%, 15%, 3%, 19%, 25%, 56% from 2001-2007 respectively, and down 39%, 39%, 79% from 2008-2010 respectively. In 2011, I was flat, but some ill-timed trades (should have held AG) caused a loss of 17% and 14% in 2012 and 2013. Note: gains and losses include transaction costs. 2009 and 2010, I traded frequently, adding up transaction costs. That is why I favor long term holding over short term trading.I invest in all stocks. I don't agree that US stocks are the safest. Want a safe stock, try TEVA. It did not fall much, or at all, during the credit crisis. And generics are the future.Being a chemistry graduate, I tend to focus of the drug, medical, biotech, and chemical industries. So far, I wrote about 5 medical companies (RPC, OREX, KV.A, PLX, & XOMA). OREX and KV.A were right on target, though KV.A has fallen back hard after reaching their highs, which surprised me. PLX was half right: it did get a negative letter from the FDA, but the options strategy was wrong. For RPC, so far, I have been wrong, and exited my position in mid-May. XOMA also has fallen since I wrote about it.However, I also cover diverse stocks, from BIDU to NCT. Ignoring other industries is a big mistake. I look for stocks I find undervalued on both a value perspective and a growth perspective, but placing more emphasis on growth. I combine both fundamental and technical analysis. The fundamentals only tell you part of the story.Anybody can make money. Don't let Wall Street analysts manipulate you. Their analysis is good, but don't take everything they say. Good luck investing, and I will do everything I can to make you money.Oh, and I invest in rather risky stocks with high potentials. If you are nearing retirement, I don't recommend you copy my portfolio. I will label my stocks with the risk/reward factor. I am adding a watch list with some stocks for retirement investors that I like. All watch list stocks are long term holdings.Current holdings:O (low risk/medium reward)DLR (low risk/medium reward)RDS.B (low risk/medium reward)OKE (medium risk/medium reward)CGC (medium risk/high reward)GBTC (medium risk/high reward)MMNFF (medium risk/high reward)BTCS (high risk/high reward)BTSC (high risk/high reward)MCOA (high risk/high reward)MGTI (high risk/very high reward)HVBTF (high risk/very high reward)XXII (high risk/very high reward)RGSE (very very high risk/high/if any reward)SUNEQ (bankrupt/no reward)Watch list:ROK (medium risk/medium reward)AG (medium risk/medium reward)EXK (medium risk/medium reward)GTIM (medium risk/high reward) BOJA (medium risk/high reward)SWKS (medium risk/high reward)JAZZ (medium risk/high reward)NFLX (medium risk/high reward)LVS (medium risk/high reward)SAM (medium risk/high reward)CMG (medium risk/high reward)ZNH (medium risk/high reward)RDY (medium risk/high reward)NVDA (low risk/high reward)AVGO (low risk/medium reward)CF (low risk/high reward)TTM (low risk/high reward)NVO (low risk/high reward)BIDU (low risk/high reward)PCLN (low risk/high reward)CLF (low risk/medium reward)AAPL (low risk/medium reward)GOOG (low risk/medium reward)TEVA (low risk/medium reward)GOL (low risk/medium reward)CIM (low risk/medium reward) - dividend stock

Disclosure: I am/we are long GBTC. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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