McCullough: Our GDP Forecasts Are The Lowest On Wall Street

Hedgeye profile picture
Hedgeye
2.88K Followers

Summary

  • Our GDP forecasts were the highest on Wall Street for six straight quarters.
  • Hedgeye’s predictive tracking algorithm for quarter-over-quarter U.S. GDP for 1Q 2018 is now the lowest on the Street.
  • “Does the U.S. economy, in rate of change space in the next one to two quarters, start to lose its momentum and slow?” says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.

Our GDP forecasts were the highest on Wall Street for six straight quarters—we were contrarian and (as the data showed) largely correct.

Hedgeye’s predictive tracking algorithm for quarter-over-quarter U.S. GDP for 1Q 2018 is now the lowest on the Street.

We are at 1.56%.

But Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says it’s not a reason to panic. “I’m not calling for a crash,” McCullough emphasizes in the above clip.

“Does the U.S. economy, in rate of change space in the next one to two quarters, start to lose its momentum and slow?”

McCullough points to the recent dip in the consumer confidence report as one of several reasons why the top may be in for U.S. GDP.

“At some point we’re going to look back at this level and say, ‘Wow, that was the top,’” he says.

Watch the clip above for more.

This article was written by

Hedgeye profile picture
2.88K Followers
Hedgeye Risk Management is an independent investment research and online financial media firm. Focused exclusively on generating and delivering thoughtful investment ideas in a proven buy-side process, the firm combines quantitative, bottom-up and macro analysis with an emphasis on timing. The Hedgeye team features some of the world's most regarded research analysts - united around a vision of independent, un-compromised real-time investment research as a service. We measure ourselves on our core values: Transparency, Accountability, and Trust.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Recommended For You

Comments

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.