Entering text into the input field will update the search result below

April 5 Natural Gas Storage Report: Our Expectations And Forecast

Apr. 05, 2018 9:15 AM ETBOIL, DCNG, DGAZ, FCG, GASX, KOLD, UGAZF, UNG, UNL13 Comments


  • This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 1,359 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending March 30.
  • We anticipate to see a draw of 24 bcf, which is 20 bcf larger than a year ago and 4 bcf smaller vs 5-year average.
  • Annual storage deficit is expected to continue expanding until the end of April, 2018.

Last Week and This Week

U.S. Energy Information Administration should report a smaller change in natural gas storage this week compared to the week prior. We anticipate to see a draw of 24 bcf (1 bcf larger than the comparable figure in ICE's latest report for the EII-U.S. EIA Financial Weekly Index, 20 bcf larger than a year ago and 4 bcf smaller vs 5-year average for this time of the year).

Last week, the number of total degree-days (TDDs) continued to decline mostly due to seasonal factors. We estimate that TDDs dropped by 15.0% w-o-w, but we still some 25% higher than a year ago. The number of heating-degree days (HDDs) declined by 17%, while the number of cooling-degree days (CDDs) almost doubled (from a very low base). Heating demand was above historical average in the Central and Midwest parts of the country, while cooling demand was mostly above average in the South. This week, the weather continued to get warmer in the South and colder in the North and we believe that the number of TDDs increased by 8% (see the chart below). The presence of both heating and cooling demand in different parts of the United States is complicating storage forecasting process.

Next Week

The latest numerical weather prediction models are returning some mixed results. The latest ECMWF extended-range model projected above normal TDDs for the week ending April 13 and mostly normal TDDs in the following four weeks (April 20 – May 11). CFSv2 long-range model is projecting above normal HDDs in April and above normal CDDs in May. ECMWF 12z Ensemble and GFS 12z Ensemble mid-range models are disagreeing completely about the intensity of cold over the next 15 days. Both models are showing above normal HDDs, but GFS is about twice as bullish as ECMWF. Overall, our analysis shows that next week, the number of

Thank you for reading our weekly report. We also write a daily update of our forecast for key natural gas variables: production, consumption, exports, imports and storage. Interested in getting this daily update? Sign up for Natural Gas Fundamentals, our Marketplace service, to get the most critical natural gas data.

This article was written by

Bluegold Trader profile picture
High quality, up to date analytics (natural gas, crude oil and forex)
Bluegold Trader (BGT) is an independent provider of public market information and trading analytics. BGT is a one-stop shop for all your research needs in energy and forex trading.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.