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BioSci Research On Geron (Part II): Evaluating The Hidden Value Of The Myelofibrosis Franchise

Apr. 05, 2018 3:01 PM ETGeron Corporation (GERN)JNJ54 Comments


  • Lead molecule Imetelstat is potentially a novel cancer treatment gearing to inhibit the enzyme telomerase. The myelofibrosis (“MF”) program has a very good chance of delivering robust clinical outcomes.
  • Johnson & Johnson is most likely to extend the partnership due to the potential positive upcoming data results for MF.
  • Sales of Imetelstat for MF can rival that of Incyte Corporation’s flagship Jakafi.

Focus on buying these companies when they are out of favor, that is when, either because of general market conditions or because the financial community at the moment has misconceptions of its true worth, the stock is selling at prices well under what it will be when its true merit is better understood. - The Father of Growth Investing (Philip Fisher)

Geron Corporation (NASDAQ:NASDAQ:GERN) is one of those stocks that investors either despise or adore. At the core of this stellar bioscience is the innovation of a unique approach to cancer treatment that, in and of itself, can service multiple blockbuster franchises that we’ll later discuss. In this research, we’ll explicate the robust prospects of the lead molecule (Imetelstat) as the potential treatment for MF. As follows, we’ll briefly touch upon the company. Then, we’ll go into details about the underlying science of telomeres, the disease MF, the current and potential treatment with Imetelstat, and the market as well as investment risk assessment.

Figure 1: Geron Corporation stock chart. (Source: StockCharts)

Fundamental Analysis

Headquartered in Menlo Park, CA, Geron is focusing on the innovation and commercialization of a novel cancer treatment that harnesses the power to control the telomerase enzyme - a key regulator human chromosome length. Having a highly focused yet enriched pipeline (per figure 2), the company is developing a telomerase inhibitor coined Imetelstat in two franchises: myelofibrosis (“MF”) and myelodysplastic syndromes (“MDS”). MF and MDS segments are currently being in the phase 2 (IMbrak) study and the phase 2/3 (IMerge) trial.

The share price was decimated back in 2014 due to the clinical hold the FDA put in place. This is due to the concerns re the reversibility of liver toxicities. In response, Geron submitted additional data and got the hold removed. The new findings showed that

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