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Natural Gas Storage Forecast For Next Week

Apr. 06, 2018 3:43 PM ETUNG, UGAZF, DGAZ, BOIL, KOLD, UNL, DCNG7 Comments


  • We anticipate a storage draw of -5 Bcf.
  • If the EIA does report a storage report of -5 Bcf, it will be compared with +10 Bcf last year and +9 Bcf for the five-year average.
  • Lower 48 production reached another all-time high this week.
  • Demand dropped w-o-w as weather started to moderate, but the outlook shows weather to remain colder than normal.

Welcome to the natural gas storage forecast edition of Natural Gas Daily!

The EIA reported a -29 Bcf change yesterday and an implied flow of -20 Bcf. This was 1 Bcf lower than our forecast of -21 Bcf. Be sure to read our week of March 30 report here.

For the week of April 6, we expect a storage draw of 5 Bcf.

On a fundamental supply and demand basis, below is how each fundamental factor fared vs. the prior week:

On the supply side, lower 48 production came in higher w-o-w by 0.4 Bcf/d to notch another all-time high. Production as of yesterday reached as high as ~80.1 Bcf/d, and this is still on pace for our bear case. Canadian gas net imports were flat w-o-w, but LNG sendout was much lower w-o-w bringing total gas supplies lower.

On the demand side, heating demand loss and lower power burn drove demand lower, while higher LNG and Mexico gas exports rose w-o-w to help offset some of the demand loss. Cove Point LNG has been spotty at best with the latest LNG export reading around ~3.2 Bcf/d, and there have only been a few days when LNG exports reached ~4 Bcf/d.

In total, implied balance weakened this week as it should be with weather moderating across the lower 48.

If the EIA does report a storage report of -5 Bcf, it will be compared with +10 Bcf last year and +9 Bcf for the five-year average.

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