26 'Safer' Monthly Paid U.S. Exchange Dividend Stocks Have Cash To Cover April Payouts

Summary

• 26 of 99 Monthly Paying (MoPay) U.S. dividend stocks were tagged "safer" by showing positive annual returns, and free cash flow yields greater than their dividend yields as of 4/3/18.
• MoPay stock broker-estimated gains ranged 11.1%-79.35% net from ROYT, ORC, PFLT, CJREF, HCAP, SCM, WSR, GECC, CPTA, & OAKS, averaging 30.39% net.
• "Safer" MoPay stocks also reported payout ratios, total annual returns, dividend growth, and p/e ratios as of 4/3/18 to validate their dividend backing. 33/99 listed were disqualified for negative annual-returns.
• Top 10 'safer' April dividend  MoPay yields ranged 6.57% SJT; ARESF; BTBIF; ARR; AGNC; ORC; CJREF. Their free cash flow yields ranged 8.14%-27.94%.
• Analyst one-year targets revealed that $5k invested in the lowest priced five of ten top "safer" U.S. MoPay stocks projected 5.68% more gain than from $5K invested in all ten. Small low price MOPays count!

Actionable Conclusion (1-10): Analysts Asserted Top Ten U.S. 'Safer' Dividend MoPay Stocks Could Net 4.6% to 17.6% Gains By April, 2019

All ten top-gain 'safe' dividend MoPay stocks (tinted gray in the chart above) were verified as being among the ten highest yielders for the coming year, based on analyst 1 year targets. Thus the yield-based picking strategy for this group, as graded by analyst estimates, proved 100% accurate (a rarity first seen this year).

Projections based on estimated dividend returns from $1000 invested in the thirty highest yielding stocks and their aggregate one year analyst median target prices, as reported by YCharts, created the 2018-19 data points. Note: one year target prices by lone analysts were not applied. Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to April 3, 2019 were:

Corus Entertainment (OTCPK:CJREF) netted $175.66 based on dividends alone less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 46% less than the market as a whole.

Apple Hospitality REIT (APLE) netted $140.16 based on dividends plus a median target price estimate from five analysts less broker fees. A Beta number was not available for APLE.

Orchid Island Capital (ORC) netted $1525.55 based on no target price from analysts, just projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 68% less than the market as a whole.

AGNC Investment (AGNC) netted $94.41 based on dividends and a median target price estimate from ten analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 6% opposite the market as a whole.

ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) netted $77.52 based on a median target price estimate from four analysts, plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 46% less than the market as a whole.

BTB REIT (OTC:BTBIF) netted $71.69 based on dividends alone less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 1% more than the market as a whole.

Artis REIT (OTCPK:ARESF) netted $59.51 based only on dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 5% less than the market as a whole.

San Juan Basin Royalty (SJT) was said to net $55.59, based on dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 7% opposite the market as a whole.

First National Financial (OTCPK:FNLIF) projected a $51.65 net gain based on only dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 42% less than the market as a whole.

Gamehost (OTCPK:GHIFF) net 45.73 based on dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 34% less than the market as a whole

Average net gain in dividend and price was 8.98% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten "Safer" U.S. MoPay dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 50% less than the market as a whole.

Actionable Conclusion (11): (Bear Alert) Analysts Tag One U.S. 'Safer' Dividend MoPay Stock A -5.8% Loser To March, 2019

Itau Unibanco Holding (ITUB) projected a $68.44 net loss based on mean target price estimates from ten analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 71% more than the market.

The Dividend Dogs Rule

The "dog" moniker was earned by stocks exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest dividend yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best termed, "underdogs".

26 of 99 March All-Cap US Exchange MoPay Dividend Stocks Showed Positive Returns And Cash Flow Yields Beyond Their Dividend Yields

Periodic Safety Inspection

A previous article discussed the attributes of these 99 all-cap MoPay stocks from which 26 "safer" ones were sorted. You see below the list that passed the dividend "stress" test. Those 26 all-cap monthly-pay dividend sticks report positive returns and sufficient annual cash flow yield to cover anticipated annual dividend yield. The margin of excess is shown in the bold face column labeled "SafeMargin".

Financial prowess, however, is easily manipulated by a board of directors managing company policy canceling or varying the payout of dividends to shareholders. For example, Prospect Capital (PSEC) reduced its dividend from $.111 To $.083 as of January 2015. Also, American Capital Agency (AGNC) announced July 27, 2015 a reduction of its $.20 monthly shareholder payout to $.18 as of September.

Also past listee, Blue Bluerock Residential (BRG) in December announced its retreat to quarterly dividend payments "in keeping with industry tradition." For the past three quarters Tahoe Resources (TAHO) skipped monthly and even quarterly payouts.

One more recent example was the dividend reductions by Capitala Finance (CPTA) from $0.207 per month in December 2015 to $0.157 in January 2016, a further reduction to $0.13 per month in October 2016, and a cut to $.085 per month in October, 2017. Finally. Orchid Island Capital (ORC) has scaled down dividends twice in the time period discussed. In July, 2015 their monthly payout was slashed from $0.18 to $0.14, and most recently cut down to $0.11 as of January, 2018.

Four Business Sectors Showed "Safer" Equities Paying Monthly Dividends For April

Six of eleven Morningstar sectors were represented by the twenty-six equities with "safer" April dividends. Those were from: consumer cyclical (3); real estate (11); energy (3); financial services (6); Utilities (1); healthcare (1); Basic Materials (1); Communication Services (0); Consumer Defensive (0); Industrials (0); Technology (0).

The first four sectors named on the above list constituted the top ten by yield.

Yield Metrics Uncovered Some Bargain MoPay "Safer" Stocks

Ten "Safe" top All-Cap U.S. MoPay dividend stocks per April 3 YCharts data ranked themselves by yield as follows:

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Estimated 5 Lowest Priced of Ten Monthly Pay Dividend Stocks (12) To Deliver 19.82% VS. (13) 18.67% Net Gains from All Ten By April, 2019

$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest priced stocks in the "safe" ten U.S. MoPay kennel by yield were determined by analyst 1 year targets to deliver 5.68% more net gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The second lowest priced "safer" MoPay equity, Corus Entertainment (OTCPK:CJREF), was projected to deliver the best net gain of 17.57%.

Lowest priced five "safe" MoPay dividend dogs as of April 3 were: BTB REIT (OTC:BTBIF); Corus Entertainment (OTCPK:CJREF); San Juan Basin Royalty (NYSE:SJT); Orchid Island Capital (ORC); Gamehost (OTCPK:GHIFF), with prices ranging from $3.56 to $8.15.

Higher priced five "safe" all-cap MoPay dogs for April 3 were: Artis REIT (OTCPK:ARESF); Apple Hospitality REIT (APLE); AGNC Investment (AGNC); First National Financial (OTCPK:FNLIF); ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR), whose prices ranged from $10.55 to $23.38.

This distinction between five low priced dividend stocks and the general field of ten reflects the "basic method" Michael B. O'Higgins employed for beating the Dow. The added scale of projected gains based on analyst targets contributed a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here and now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Its also the work analysts got paid big bucks to do.

Caution is advised, however, as analysts are historically 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and about 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of the change.

The net gain estimates mentioned above did not factor-in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

See my instablog for specific instructions about how to best apply the dividend dog data featured in this article, this glossary instablog to interpret my abbreviated headings, and this instablog to aid your safe investing. --Fredrik Arnold

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible starting points for your safest MoPay dog dividend stock purchase research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.ycharts. com; www.finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in Yahoo Finance. "Safer" Dogs&Boy photo from: thriftyniftymommy.com

Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long MFCSF. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.