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Cloudera: Incredibly Cheap After Sinking Further

Apr. 10, 2018 6:03 AM ETCloudera, Inc. (CLDR)30 Comments
Gary Alexander profile picture
Gary Alexander


  • Cloudera has continued to fall after its post-earnings crash, breaking below $13 to all-time lows.
  • The stock has lost 45% from its recent highs and is down 15% from its IPO one year ago.
  • Cloudera's weak guidance will likely receive an explanation during the April 12 investor day.
  • At just 3x forward revenues, Cloudera is one of the cheapest stocks in the cloud software sector.

Just when Cloudera (NYSE:CLDR) investors were probably thinking it couldn't get any worse, Cloudera has tumbled yet again - this time, to all-time lows below $13 per share. Pessimism for the company has never been higher - but despite the consensus doomsday opinion of the moment, I still believe Cloudera to have vast potential.

Coming right around the corner on April 28 is the one-year anniversary of Cloudera's IPO. Among the rush of software companies that went public in that March-April time frame - including Alteryx (AYX), Appian (APPN), and Yext (YEXT) - Cloudera is the only company to have posted negative returns. It's down 15% from its IPO price of $15. And some more context around Cloudera's new lows - its market cap is now $1.8 billion, less than half the $4.1 billion valuation at which Intel (INTC) bought an equity stake in the company.

Aside from a purely financial stake, Intel also has a strategic and technology partnership with Cloudera, consistent with Intel's initiatives to improve its position in machine learning and analytics - the mainstays of Cloudera's strength. The continued depression in Cloudera shares has some observers postulating that Intel would emerge to buy the rest of the company - at the moment, as of Cloudera's latest 10-K filing last week, Intel already owns 18% of the company. Certainly with $17.7 billion in cash as of the end of FY17, Intel has more than enough resources to pull off an acquisition.

I've been an investor in Cloudera since the early days after the IPO and have been frustrated by the stock's lackluster performance. I'm standing firm in my position, however, as I believe Cloudera to be a solid fundamental play at an incredible price. Not since the February 2016 crash of Tableau (DATA) has a cloud

ChartTWLO EV to Revenues (Forward) data by YCharts

This article was written by

Gary Alexander profile picture
With combined experience of covering technology companies on Wall Street and working in Silicon Valley, and serving as an outside adviser to several seed-round startups, Gary Alexander has exposure to many of the themes shaping the industry today. He has been a regular contributor on Seeking Alpha since 2017. He has been quoted in many web publications and his articles are syndicated to company pages in popular trading apps like Robinhood.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long CLDR. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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