The Raiders Of The Lost Ark

Satipo: Let us hurry. There is nothing to fear here.

Indiana: That's what scares me.

- Indiana Jones

The FBI, the New York Times reports, raided both the office and the home, and the hotel room, of the President's personal attorney. Bloomberg states that, "Cohen's attorney Stephen Ryan said agents seized documents using several search warrants after Special Counsel Robert Mueller made a referral to prosecutors in the Southern District of New York. I find this troubling. I find what may occur, because of this incursion, more than troubling."

I did not really want to follow this trail, but I found myself forced to do just that, because of what may happen. It is a deeply unsettling course of thought. Let me be very clear, I am making no predictions, I am making no projections, but with the application of some common sense, there are branches of a path that spring from "thinking it through," that are very unpleasant places in which to step. We are in the infamous swamp here, and all kinds of nasty creatures reside in this backwater.

What if Trump fires Mueller for causing this incident is one question. How will Congress react, if he does, is the next one. What if the FBI found something of significance and leaks it to the Democrats in Congress, who demand a Trial of Impeachment. The bushes get thornier and thornier as you move along. You would like to think that, "There is nothing to fear here." The fact that there might be something now, "That's what scares me."

I would make the observation that if some denizen, or more than one, rears its ugly head that the markets will get swacked. Bonds up, equities down and general mayhem. I am certainly not hoping for this outcome, but it stands there, staring you in the face. If the "Raiders" turn up some still unknown piece of evidence, that could be about almost anything, even some business deal from years ago that President Trump was involved in. The possibilities are endless and the endless part, to me, is the truly scary part.

Cries of "Witch Hunt" may soon ensue. Cries of things far worse may come echoing out of the night. It also could be that the FBI has unmasked itself, and that could also make for a long and dreary Congressional investigation. I have often said that it is not the odds, but the "revelation," and we got handed just that, yesterday afternoon.

Sallah: Indy, why does the floor move?

Indiana: Give me your torch.

Indiana: Snakes. Why'd it have to be snakes?

- Indiana Jones

[The commentary above was all written on Monday afternoon.]

On Tuesday, the Wall Street Journal reports, "Mr. Trump, in a meeting with military leadership at the White House on Monday evening, called the raid a disgrace and a witch hunt. 'It's an attack on what we all stand for,' said Mr. Trump, referring to the investigation. The president criticized Mr. Mueller's team, calling it 'the most conflicted group of people' and said Attorney General Jeff Sessions made a 'terrible mistake' by recusing himself from the Justice Department's investigation into Russia's alleged meddling in the 2016 presidential election.
Asked if he would fire Mr. Mueller, Mr. Trump said: 'We'll see what happens. Many people have said, 'You should fire him,' the president said. He didn't say whether he intended to do so."

The futures markets are buoyed this morning by the President of China's remarks about trade. No "trade war" seems imminent. We will all see how long this sentiment holds, if the Trump investigation gets trickier. I am reminded of Pat Benatar this morning:

"Hit me with your best shot

Fire away."