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Amarin: Waiting For REDUCE-IT Results

Apr. 11, 2018 3:08 AM ETAmarin Corporation plc (AMRN)7 Comments


  • Amarin indicated that Q1 2018 net product revenues were approximately $43 million.
  • This is short of its original guidance for $45 million to $48 million, although wholesaler inventory level changes negatively affected revenues by $2 million.
  • I now expect 2018 revenues to be in-line with guidance, compared to previous expectations for exceeding guidance.  Amarin will still have plenty of cash by REDUCE-IT results though.
  • Top-line results for REDUCE-IT are expected by the end of Q3 2018.  This will have a huge potential impact on Amarin's share price.

Amarin (NASDAQ:AMRN) provided an update on its Q1 2018 net product revenues recently and indicated that those revenues fell short of its previous guidance range. While Amarin did reiterate its full year guidance, it seems less likely that it will beat that guidance as I had previously thought. It appears that revenue growth is slowing, but while this is a bit disappointing, the REDUCE-IT results matter far more than current sales growth.

Vascepa Revenues

Amarin estimated that its Q1 2018 net product revenue ended up at around $43 million. This was a bit disappointing compared to its original guidance for $45 million to $48 million in net product revenue during the quarter. However, Amarin believes that a decrease in wholesaler inventory levels negatively affected net product revenue by $2 million. Without that impact, net product revenues would have been $45 million, reaching the low end of Amarin's original Q1 2018 guidance.

Based on script information, it does appear that Vascepa's year-over-year growth is slowing noticeably. Vascepa's NRx numbers are reaching new highs, but have been mostly stuck in the 9,000 to 10,000 per week range since July 2017. There is generally upward progress there, but the progress has been fairly slow recently. Amarin indicated that seasonal factors may have affected refills in Q1 2018.

As a result, I think that Amarin's reaffirmed guidance for $230 million in net product revenue during 2018 is still reasonable, but I am reducing my estimate for net product revenue down $10 million from $240 million.

This doesn't have a major impact on Amarin's financial situation, and it remains likely to have around $80 million in cash on hand at the end of 2018 without adjusting for REDUCE-IT results.

Other News

Amarin also mentioned that it was on track to report REDUCE-IT results before the

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