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Syria Strike: Market Implications


  • The US, Britain and France have launched missiles at Syria.
  • This strike has been widely anticipated.
  • What does it mean for markets?
  • Can we protect ourselves with certain trades?

Friday Night the US, Britain and France launched missiles at three Syrian targets. The targets were all tied to the use or manufacturing of chemical weapons and is intended as a counter strike because allegedly Syrian President Assad deployed chemical weapons against rebels within Syria.

source: wsj

Reviewing U.S. and British new sources it is apparent the coalition wants to send the message:

  1. The strikes happened because of the use of chemical weapons
  2. The strikes were carried out carefully with the intent to avoid accidental deaths and collateral damage to civilians, Russians or Iranians.
  3. No further escalation seems to be desired.

In my view nothing surprising has happened. Also read: Here come the rockets. If the above official story holds up, as it gets scrutinized and we will get to hear the side of the story from Russian, Iranian, Syrian and independent media, I don't see it affecting markets much beyond a potential hundred to two hundred point sell-off.

The impact of the event can grow if it turns out Russian or Iranian targets have been struck. Another way for the market to take it badly would be if there's an actual response by Russians, Iranians or Syria itself.

The WSJ has Anatoly Antonov, Russia’s ambassador to the U.S., as stating:

We warned that such actions will not be left without consequences. All responsibility for them rests with Washington, London and Paris. Insulting the president of Russia is unacceptable and inadmissible.

A statement that's quite political in that it sounds pretty grave but you can take it to mean nothing as well.

The WSJ also has the Iran’s foreign ministry stating there will be

consequences and repercussions for this adventurism


In m previous article I wrote:

I'm not at all confident about "trades" in response to airstrikes. However, it seems obvious we

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This article was written by

Bram de Haas profile picture
Special-Situation And Event-Driven Ideas To Improve Risk Adjusted Returns
15 years of investing and I feel like a rookie in his first year at the academy. My roots are in the value school but over time I've learned to respect different approaches. I'm interested in what quants do, options traders do, and even what WallStreetBets is doing (keep your friends close and...)

I gravitate towards special-situations. That means situations around companies or the market where the price can move in a certain direction based on a specific event or ongoing event. This eclectic and creative style of investing seems to suit my personality and interests most closely.

Since 2020 I host a podcast/videocast where I discuss (special-situation/event-driven) market events and investment ideas with top analysts, portfolio managers, hedge fund managers, experts, and other investment professionals. I highly recommend it (pick episodes around topics that interest you) for the amazing guests that come on with regularity.

I've been writing for Seeking Alpha since 2013 after playing p0ker professionally. In 2018 I founded Starshot Capital B.V. A Dutch AIF manager. Follow me on Twitter @Bramdehaas or email me Dehaas.Bram at Gmail

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long IAU. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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