Inflation Or Employment

Colin Lloyd profile picture
Colin Lloyd
675 Followers

Summary

  • Inflationary fears are growing and US rates continue to rise.
  • Employment has become more flexible since the crisis of 2008/2009.
  • Commodity prices have risen, but from multi-year lows.
  • During the next recession, job losses will rapidly temper inflationary pressures.

Given the official policy response to the Great Financial Recession – a mixture of central bank balance sheet expansion, lower for longer interest rates and a general lack of fiscal rectitude on the part of developed nation governments – I believe there are two factors which are key for stock markets over the next few years, inflation and employment. The fact that these also happen to be the two mandated targets of the Federal Reserve – full employment and price stability – is more than coincidental. My struggle is in attempting to decide whether demand-pull inflation can survive the impact of a rapid rise in unemployment come the next recession.

Inflation and the Central Bankers' response is clearly the new narrative of the financial markets. In his latest essay, Ben Hunt of Salient Partners makes some fascinating observations - Epsilon Theory: The Narrative Giveth and The Narrative Taketh Away:-

This market, like all markets, cares about two things and two things only — the price of money and the real return on invested capital. Or, as they are typically represented in cartoon form, interest rates and growth.

…This market, like all markets, needs a positive narrative on risk (the price of money) or reward (the real return on capital) to go up. Any narrative will do! But when neither risk nor reward is represented with a positive narrative, this market, like all markets, will go down. And that’s where we are today.

Does the Fed have our back? No, they do not. They’ve told us and told us that they’re going to keep raising rates. And they will. The market still doesn’t fully believe them, and that’s going to be a constant source of market disappointment over the next few years. In the same way that markets go up as they climb a wall of worry, so do

This article was written by

Colin Lloyd profile picture
675 Followers
About me My name is Colin Lloyd. I have been following the ebb and flow of financial markets for more than 30 years. I have worked for brokers and asset managers in commodities, money markets, capital markets, equities and foreign exchange. My interests My interests include, but are not confined too, geopolitics, central banking, energy policy, regulatory change, demographics, technology and capital flows. About this news letter I started writing this news letter to provide longer term macroeconomic commentary and guidance for financial market investors. I hope it will provide some new insights and provoke debate.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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