Earnings reporting season for 2018-Q2 is now underway in the U.S. stock market. And where the S&P 500 is concerned, the arrival of earnings season appears to have coincided with a shift in how far investors are looking into the future, with investors shifting the majority of their forward-looking attention away from the distant future quarter of 2019-Q1 back toward the current quarter of 2018-Q2.
Or at least, that's what the actual trajectory of the S&P 500 in Week 3 of April 2018 is suggesting with respect to where our dividend futures-based model would set the level of stock prices after factoring in how far ahead in time investors are looking. Overall, it appears that investors are splitting their forward-looking focus between 2018-Q2 and 2019-Q1, with 2018-Q2 being slightly favored through the end of Week 3 of April 2018.
As for the news of the week that was, there was an increase in the amount of noise being generated by the Fed's minions....
Monday, 16 April 2018
- Oil drops as Syria risk seen muted after weekend air strikes
- Dudley sees three or four Fed rate hikes in 2018: CNBC
- Fed's Kaplan says he has no problem with being 'restrictive'
- Wall Street rises, focus turns to earnings from geopolitics
Tuesday, 17 April 2018
- Oil prices rise on crude supply worry, Wall Street strength
- Fed can keep rate hikes gradual without risking inflation: Evans
- Wall Street rises on earnings hopes, Netflix soars
Wednesday, 18 April 2018
- Oil breaks above $72 as supply concerns build
- Fed's Quarles says flatter yield curve doesn't point to recession
- Fed's Dudley sees 'slightly restrictive' U.S. monetary policy on horizon
- Energy, transport stocks lift Wall Street, IBM drags
Thursday, 19 April 2018
- Oil pulls back from gains; OPEC says glut nearly gone
- Fed's Mester wants rate hikes this year and next
- Trade Wars: What happens when a country imposes tariffs on a product that was in the process of being shipped to it?
- Wall Street tumbles on tobacco and tech, commodities soften after wild ride
Friday, 20 April 2018
- Oil falls after Trump criticizes OPEC for artificially high prices
- A U.S. recession ahead? Fed policymakers say not to worry
- Wall Street falls on investor nerves about interest rates, tech
- After the bell, major geopolitical crisis de-escalation:
Elsewhere, Barry Ritholtz found that the number of the week's positives outweighed the negatives for the U.S. economy and markets in the third week of April 2018.