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Actinium Pharmaceuticals: Neglected Assets In Niche Oncology

Jérôme Verony profile picture
Jérôme Verony


  • Significant hires, partnership activity, and an important data readout later this year point towards an inflection point in ATNM.
  • We believe that the company's drug candidates benefit from significant differentiation and virtually non-existant competition in an otherwise crowded space.
  • We believe that Iomab-B enrollment is picking up steam, and the drug is likely to be approved, due to lack of viable alternatives.
  • Following a recent offering, the company is financially de-risked through important milestones.


The best opportunities for outsized gains in biotech tend to be found in companies that are left-for-dead and/or misunderstood by market participants. However, due to the market's propensity for self-reinforcing dynamics, it can be challenging for contrarian investors to catch a stock's 'bottom' with accuracy.

We believe that we have identified significant dynamics pointing to a near-term reversal in an oncology micro-cap suffering from a bad reputation.

A quick glance at the 5-year chart of Actinium Pharmaceuticals (NYSE:ATNM) reveals that ATNM has been a remarkably value-destructive holding for long-term investors.

Figure 1: ATNM shares have given up practically all of their value over the past 5 years.

The proximate explanation for the stock's ongoing slide is:

  • serial enrollment delays for the company's lead drug, Iomab-B
  • several stints at stock promotion, the most recent dating back to March 2017 according to stockpromoters.com
  • repeat secondaries on unfavorable terms

Additionally, we believe that significant momentum in 'hot' areas of cancer therapy, especially immuno-oncology ('IO') in all its flavors, has contributed to investor indifference to Actinium's approach.

However, we believe that Actinium's targeted radiotherapy approach will in fact succeed in niches which are off limits to both classical chemotherapy and emerging IO treatments. We also believe that the inflow of sector-specific talent bolsters the credibility of the company's approach while facilitating all-important engagement with the medical community.

These qualitative observations, combined with our financial modeling of the stock's intrinsic value, point towards an asymmetric risk/reward profile.

Introduction and financial snapshot

  • Mcap: $40m
  • Cash: $17.4m by EOY 2017; another $15m raised since
  • 2017 annual net loss/cash burn: $26.6m

Figure 2: Encouragingly, the bulk of ATNM's expenses are tied to R&D. Source: ATNM annual report

Actinium is a niche oncology player specializing in ADCs, antibody-drug conjugates, and more precisely, antibody-radioisotope conjugates (henceforth 'ARCs'). In

This idea was first discussed on Second-Level Investing.

This article was written by

Jérôme Verony profile picture
I used to provide equity research focused on the biotech & pharma sector on SeekingAlpha before joining a financial industry association. None of the content I have provided through SeekingAlpha reflects the views of my past or present employers.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long ATNM. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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