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In Case Akram's Razor Is Right About Nvidia

May 01, 2018 4:15 AM ETNVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)27 Comments
David Pinsen profile picture
David Pinsen


  • Nvidia was a Portfolio Armor top name in January of 2016, and has been periodically since then, including last November 2nd, when it appeared in my top names subscriber post.
  • Since then, it's up modestly, but recently Seeking Alpha contributor Arkam's Razor argued Nvidia could call to $140 this year.
  • I present two ways Nvidia shareholders can stay long while strictly limiting their risk in the event Arkam's Razor is right this time.

Nvidia booth at Computex, via Bing.

Nvidia Booth at Computex Taipei (credit: Computex Taipei)

Still Right, But Losing Steam

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) was a Portfolio Armor top name back in January of 2016, when it was trading at under $28 per share, as I noted in an article last year (What Happens When We're Right). It was also a top name on November 2nd of last year. It's up since then, but more modestly. And recently, pseudonymous Seeking Alpha contributor Akram's Razor argued that Nvidia could fall to $140 per share this year. Here I recap how that November 2nd top names cohort has done so far, and then I show a couple of ways NVDA shareholders can stay long while limiting their risk over the next several months.

Nvidia And Our November 2nd Top Names

Each week since June 8th of last year, I've been presenting Portfolio Armor's top names to my Bulletproof Investing subscribers. These are the names that, out of the subset that are hedgeable against single-digit declines, the site estimates will have highest potential returns over the next 6 months. So far, their 6-month performance has been fairly strong, as you can see in the table below (clicking on a starting date will pull up a chart showing the individual names that week, and their performance).

Starting Date Portfolio Armor 6-Month Performance SPY 6-Month Performance
June 8, 2017 14.49% 9.99%
June 15, 2017 19.85% 10.97%
June 22, 2017 24.46% 11.27%
June 29, 2017 18.24% 11.68%
July 6, 2017 21.03% 14.81%
July 13, 2017 28.25% 14.85%
July 20, 2017 25.04% 14.62%
July 27, 2017 33.52% 17.10%
August 3, 2017 20.72% 12.66%
August 10, 2017 13.05% 8.36%
August 17, 2017 10.71% 13.48%
August 24, 2017 15.23% 13.72%
August 31, 2017 8.42% 10.87%

Want to see this week's top 10 names? Subscribe here for a free two-week trial.

This article was written by

David Pinsen profile picture
I developed the hedged portfolio method of investing at Portfolio Armor, and I run a Marketplace service at Seeking Alpha based on it called Bulletproof Investing.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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