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The Time Is Right To Buy Novavax

May 02, 2018 11:31 AM ETNovavax, Inc. (NVAX)67 Comments
MedTechBio profile picture


  • Shares of Novavax have been oversold.
  • NanoFlu, when approved, may take a large share of the $5 billion global flu vaccine market.
  • Pipeline likely to yield RSV NDA candidate for early 2019.
  • Buy straw hats in the winter time.

Source: WikipediaCommons

You've heard all the axioms that encapsulate the strategy of buying stocks when they're out of favor: "buy low, sell high", "buy when there's blood in the streets" and "buy straw hats in the winter time" among others. Well, with flu season coming to a close, I thought I should take another look at Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX) whose stock has had a very tumultuous time of late. I don't like buying biotech secondaries until price action has settled into a more predictable range, and so I haven't kept a close eye since the $50 million offering on April 12th. Shortly before the secondary at $1.65 per share, the stock was trading for several weeks in the $2-2.20 range. Since then, the stock has been pummeled to below the secondary and is now trading at a discount of about 26% pre-offering. I believe now is a time to take a stake in the company and ride it through what may be very fruitful for shareholders.

Shares of Novavax have been oversold

Source: BigCharts

Looking at the technicals, the stock is trading around 15% below both the 30- and 60-day EMA and has been straddling the lower Bollinger Band since the secondary. It is also trading 43% off the 52-week high reached on March 1st, immediately after announcing fantastic results from its NanoFlu Phase 1/2 trial. The stock can easily bounce back 10% from current levels and, with any positive newsflow, could approach the $2 former support level established before the secondary announcement. The Phase 2 kick off in Q3 may also act as a catalyst near term.

NanoFlu, when approved, may take a large share of the $5 billion global flu vaccine market

The flu vaccine most commonly administered this past flu season only protected against about 30% of the virus

This article was written by

MedTechBio profile picture
30+ Years financial management/analysis and investment experience. Industry experience includes: Wall Street, Money Center Banks, International Banks, Tech Manufacturing, Medical Device, Retail, Logistics, Education, Import / Export, Cannabis.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long NVAX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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