Risk On Rally: Dershowitz Makes Case Against Strauss-Kahn, Helps Sarkozy

Includes: FXE, ONN
by: Modernist

Celebrity defense attorney Alan M. Dershowitz (DSH) recently convicted Dominique Strauss-Kahn (DSK) of rape, in a mock trial held at Harvard University. Say what you want about Dershowitz, but his success rate in the courtroom speaks for itself. Dershowitz's participation is an indicator that Strauss-Kahn's reputation will improve Sarkozy's chances of winning. Rape is a grave issue and I do not intend to trivialize it. It happens to compose DSK's debacle, which has economic implications.

To summarize DSH's case against DSK: the facts favor conviction. DSK's lawyers have obscured this by proliferating confusing, contradictory narratives. DSH exposes these narratives as contradictory and improbable, labeling DSK's defense as a "multiple-choice" tactic. This allows DSH to frame the prosecution's case as the only credible narrative, implying that the facts favor conviction.

France characteristically favors "the left". BHL's popularity and his views on America can give you a pretty good idea of their cultural center relative to us. But with Sarkozy maintaining close distance behind Hollande in the polls, an exodus of disenchanted voters could put Sarkozy ahead. Something that would inspire such disenchantment is the DSK debacle. The existing social conservative voters are going to vote conservatively. If an existing support base of socialists decides to stand up for women and immigrants' rights (by punishing Hollande), this would change the course of history via a Sarkozy election.

Sarkozy is an incumbent generally considered competent in navigating the European financial crises, and his alternative could upset US investors. Thus Sarkozy's election may signal short-term stability in Europe, and this could contribute to a sustained US "risk-on" (NYSEARCA:ONN) stock rally. As an incumbent in an executive position of crisis, Sarkozy is comparable to Obama, who has thus far signalled competence in high-stakes situations such as Bin Laden's termination and Iran negotiation. So Sarkozy is in the game, and is working to appease center-left voters with a tax on corporations. He just needs DSK to turn off a few more socialists.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.